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Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

7:10 PM EST. Despite winning the past two days, Toronto’s offense looks as stale as it was before this series began. The Hays scored four unearned runs in the second inning last night and did not score again the entire night. In the opener of this series, the Blue Jays scored four times also. The Blue Jays will go for the sweep here and of course, they may get it but Marco Estrada cannot be favored in this range over anyone right now so our fade on Estrada will continue.

Estrada’s struggles this year are well-documented but it’s even worse than you may think. His xERA of 7.83 over his last 10 starts is the worst mark over a 10-game stretch that we have ever seen. If the Jays had some healthy bodies, Estrada would have likely been sent down or demoted to the pen to work things out. The other possibility is that the Jays are praying that he throws one of his lucky gems with a bunch of scouts in the stands watching. The trade deadline is five days away and scouts are everywhere. Over his past 17 frames covering four starts, Estrada has walked 18 batters. The Jays have won just two of his last nine starts and both victories were by scores of 7-6 over the Yanks and Rangers, respectively. His batted ball profile of 30% grounders, 22% line-drives and 48% fly-balls is one of the weakest profiles in the game. Perhaps most importantly, Estrada must be battling the demons in his own mind now by trying to figures out what the hell is going on. Physically and mentally, this is a beaten up starter that is likely to get whacked again. By the way, there is nothing to figure out. We insisted for two years that he was getting by on luck and it’s caught up to him.

Paul Blackburn has just nine K’s in 25 frames but that’s not his game. His game is to work fast, put the ball in play and let his defense do the rest. Blackburn was originally a supplemental first round pick of the Cubs in 2012 before being sent to the Mariners in July 2016. Seattle later traded him to Oakland in November 2016. He is all about command and control and works effectively down in the zone with three average offerings. Blackburn is a sinkerballer with a 90-93 mph fastball that he spots well. He’ll mix in a slightly above average curveball, hard slider, and below average change-up. He is able to repeat his simple delivery and slot which allows him to throw quality strikes. He has a tremendous batted ball profile of 54% grounders, 13% line-drives and 33% fly-balls. Obviously, Blackburn’s 2.88 ERA will not hold up but that’s a discussion for another time. This one is all about fading Estrada.

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