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Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

10:05 PM EST. James Paxton continues to pitch well in July (2.05 ERA) with plenty of swinging strikes (15%), a ground ball profile (48%) and consistent first-pitch strikes (63%). Paxton’s numbers are all legit and there is no doubt that he deserves to be favored here. However, we’re in the buy-low/sell-high business and Paxton’s stock is through the roof right now. The problem with Paxton is that he’s shown brilliance many times in the past but has never has been able to sustain such dominance over extended stretches before so why should we trust him now?

The Red Sox have hit LHP fairly well (.794 OPS-seventh) with the fewest swings and misses (15.7% K%) in the entire league in 2017. Boston’s offense can get us to the cashier’s booth here and so can their starter. After a 45-day layoff after a knee injury, Eduardo Rodriguez returned on July 17 against the Blue Jays and worked 5.1 innings. He walked four, struck out eight, allowed six hits and three runs before getting pulled after 111 pitches. This is now his second game back after the layoff and the 111 pitches that John Farrell let him throw assures us that Rodriguez is at full strength. He figures to be sharper in his second game back than he was in his first. Rodriguez has filthy stuff. He struck out 29 batters in his final 17 innings last season. He’s whiffed 73 batters in 65 innings this year and all of his underlying numbers reveal how difficult he is to square up on. Rodriguez’s 15% line-drive rate and K-rate are both elite, which is a deadly combination. Getting Boston at a price is almost always worth a bet and we’ll make no exceptions here.

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