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Posted at 3:00 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. After getting torched by the Orioles for four straight games in Baltimore, the Rangers went into Tampa last night and were down 3-1 going to the ninth before they rallied for two in the ninth and one in the 10th to win, 4-3. Week after week and day after day, we see the Rangers getting worse and we’re not going to allow one fluky victory change our tune. This is a weak team with a bunch of .240 hitters that will now be facing a starter that should carve them up.  

Chris Archer’s stock is down after he accrued 10 walks over his last 18 innings (3 GS) after posting only 6 BB in five games started in the month of June. Oddly enough, Archer’s 69% first-pitch strike rate in July is his best mark of any month so he hasn’t suddenly lost it. Archer figures to be throwing strikes and walking few like he’s been doing for years. When factoring in his 10.5 K’s/9 or better in every month since May, and mixing in a Texas offense that's 28th in OPS on the road (.683), while sitting last in OBA (on-base average) over the last seven days (.248), it equates to a prime play on Archer.

Andrew Cashner’s 3.58 ERA is better than Chris Archer’s 3.91 ERA but that only proves why we keep insisting to not buy ERA’s. Buy skills and in that regard, Andrew Cashner has few. We promise you that a major correction to Cashner’s surface ERA is forthcoming. Cashner has walked 38 batters and struck out a mere 43 in 88 frames so far. That’s one of the worst BB to K ratios in the league and his strikeout rate is also one of the worst. Cashner’s 7% swing and miss rate further reveals just how hittable he can be.  Andrew Cashner is making a living off of his high strand rate and low hit rate but both marks are unsustainable. He allows too many base-runners to be sporting an ERA under 4. Cashner’s xERA of 5.47 is almost three runs higher than Archer’s xERA and whether or not the corrections occur here is not the point. The point is that Cashner is living off luck while Archer is living off his great skills. That the Rangers cannot hit doesn’t hurt our chances either.

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