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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

4:10 PM EST. The Dodgers are the hottest team in the majors that are putting up some gaudy numbers right now so to back them, you will pay a massive premium to do so. The other side of that coin is we get tremendous value in taking the Rockies here after they lost the first two games of this series. However, the Rocks had to face Alex Wood and Clayton Kershaw and now they take a huge step down in class when facing Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy has put up Alex Wood/Clayton Kershaw-like surface stats but he does not have the skills to back it up. McCarthy has a 2.87 ERA and 1.07 WHIP after 12 starts but an 84% strand rate and very low 27% hit rate is the reason for his low ERA. Pay more attention to his 4.14 xERA. McCarthy’s swing and miss rate is 9% and 7% over his last five starts. He has 55 K’s in 69 frames, which is serviceable for sure but nowhere near elite. His 1.59 WHIP and 29% line-drive rate over his last six starts reveals the extreme luck that is working in his favor. Now throw in the offense of the Colorado Rockies and we get a very live pooch at a very inflated price.

Tyler Anderson’s 5.75 ERA is another misleading number. This is a pitcher that exhibits elite skills but they’re hidden because that’s what Coors Field does to pitchers. Tyler Anderson is a former first rounder that finally shook off arm woes and looked good in MLB debut a season ago. His elite command comes with full underlying support, so don't dismiss it. His 51% groundball profile gives him a higher floor than you'd expect from a thin-air pitcher. Anderson has 62 K’s in 61 frames. His swing and miss rate is 13% and 17% over his last five starts. His first-pitch strike rate is 65%. We understand that the Dodgers are killing it right now but we also know that it cannot last. The Yanks scored 50 runs in five games recently but then normalcy kicked in and the same will happen to the Dodgers. That’s not to say it will happen here but this starter for the Rockies has the ability to cool these bats off and at this price, we’re absolutely willing to gamble. The Dodgers are going a little too well right now so it’s time to sell, at least for this single game.

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