Oakland @ CHICAGO
Oakland -1½ +126 over CHICAGO

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +126 Bet365 -1½ +120 SportsInteraction -1½ +125 5DIMES -1½ +125

Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

2:05 PM EST. Sonny Gray might be the unluckiest pitcher in baseball but that works in our favor because this market sees a 2-3 record after 10 starts with a 4.84 ERA. We’re not sure if anyone realizes how out-of-whack and misleading that ERA is. Sonny Gray is an elite starter with poor surface stats. Credit electric skills to Gray and bet him now because his stock is going to rise quickly. Gray has a BB/K split of 21/58 in 58 innings. His K-rate is elite, his 55% groundball rate is elite and his 64% first-pitch strike rate is well-above league average. A crazy 40% hit rate versus righties and an overall low 66% strand rate has pushed his actual ERA into the extremely misleading category. As those numbers normalize, Sonny Gray’s surface stats will soar. By the way, the South Side cannot hit righties.

Meanwhile, Derek Holland has been exhibiting unusable stuff of late and his fly-ball profile isn’t likely to play well against an Oakland lineup that ranks as a top-5 outfit versus fly-ball pitchers. Over his last five starts, covering 22 innings, Holland has walked 12 with an ERA/xERA split of 9.55/5.97. His ERA/xERA split speaks volumes about his current skill level. Holland has changed up his pitch mix in the first three months and had moderate success early but MLB hitters catch on quickly. He’s throwing a lot fewer sinkers (16%, compared to 59% the past few years). He’s now using a knuckle curve more frequently (25% in 2017/8-11% 2014-16). However, he’s giving up more fly balls, which is a dangerous habit to have in this ballpark. Oakland’s bats are heating up again and now this becomes its most favorable pitching matchup of the weekend. If you like Holland, we’re urging you to look elsewhere.

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Our Pick

Oakland -1½ +126 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110