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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

4:10 PM EST. Matt Moore was traded to the Giants at the deadline last year and posted a 4.08 ERA the rest of the way, which was the exact same ERA that he posted for the Rays before the trade. The Rays brass must’ve seen something they didn’t like and they were right. Moore’s ERA/xERA split this year is 5.82/5.05. With three wins in 15 starts after allowing 102 hits in 85 frames, this dude cannot be favored pitching for the Giants. He has twice as many disaster starts as he does quality starts. His once mid-90’s fastball is missing in action. His 42%/37%/21% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball batted ball profile is weak and there is no consistency in what he’s doing. Moore has a weak bullpen behind him and he also pitches for a team that is 23½ games out and we’re not even in July.

Rafael Montero was signed six years ago as an international free agent. He sped through the Mets system despite being an undersized pitcher without a dominant fastball. His career minor-league numbers (2.63 ERA, 8.5 K’s/9, 2.0 BB’s/9) become that much more impressive considering that he pitched one-third of his 250 innings in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Montero’s then plus-plus control and movement on his pitches made him very tough for hitters to contend with. He throws a fastball with excellent movement from a ¾ arm slot that can reach 95 mph, and complements that with a plus slider and solid-average change-up. There’s a lot to like about Montero’s make-up with his good work ethic, repeatable mechanics, easy arm action, solid mound presence and excellent pitch sequencing but for whatever reason he has not been able to throw strikes consistently at this level, which was a skill he featured in the minors. In 15 games this year covering two starts and 13 relief appearances, Montero has struck out 28 batters in 26 frames. He struck out five Dodgers in 3.2 innings of relief in his last appearance and has posted an elite 15% swing and miss rate since May 25th. Montero has the stuff. If he throws strikes, he has #2 or #3 starter upside. He’ll now face a team that is gripping their bats tighter than anyone and that figures to help him out too. The Giants are favored here because Montero’s surface stats are horrible and that’s what this market thankfully focuses on. This kid (he’s only 26) can pitch and he can dominate if he’s throwing strikes, a trait he had his entire minor-league career. Yeah, we’ll bite.

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