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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

4:10 PM EST. It's been a long road back for Dylan Bundy. Once, one of the premier prospects in the game, Bundy's arm and shoulder issues forced him out of the majors for the better part of three seasons. He returned in 2016 and spun 109 innings of 4.02 ERA ball, which included a move to the rotation for the entire second half. Still just 24, it’s worth having a look at him again after 15 starts this year. What sticks out most is that he has 11 PURE quality starts in 15 tries. That’s a high percentage that makes him worth backing. While Bundy is not an elite pitcher or even a front-line starter, there are some encouraging signs. Bundy has been able to miss bats with ease, as his swing and miss rate is holding up. However, his low groundball % tells us hitters were able to elevate off of Bundy, which leads to considerable HR risk at Camden Yards (+16%/6% LHB/RHB HR). Thing is, this game isn’t at Camden Yards. On the road, Bundy is 3-3 with a 4.25/3.99 ERA/xERA split. Bundy's control has wavered a bit recently but his above-average sub-indicators (first-pitch strike and ball %) hint that walks shouldn't be a major issue going forward. Bundy took some important steps forward in 2016. First, and most importantly, he stayed healthy all year. His xERA says there's work to do, but with Bundy's elite prospect pedigree, ability to miss bats and the possible re-emergence of a cutter/slider early so far in '17, he’s worth getting behind when the time is right and this could very well be that time. 

Jake Faria is raising eyebrows across the league but let’s not get crazy here, ok? Faria has been the hottest ticket item in Fantasy Leagues across the continent over the past 10 days. After three starts, this rookie has 22 K’s in 20 innings to go along with a 1.37 ERA. He has only walked four batters too. If you bet against him in any of those three games, you lost. If you watched him pitch, you couldn’t help but be impressed. Now with the Rays stock soaring and this kid’s stock soaring too, you are going to pay extra to back that combo here. No question the Rays can win here but we’re in the value business and not the predication business so we’re selling high on both the Rays and Faria. 

Three starts do not make a career. In those three starts, Faria’s line drive rates were 28%, 29% and 28% respectively, The league average line-drive rate is 20%. Faria’s strand rate in those three starts was 86% and the league average is 74%. See those 22 K’s and four walks in 20 innings? That’s not going to last either because Faria’s first pitch-strike rate in his first three starts was an awful 51%. Don’t get us wrong, as this kid has upside but he was ranked the Rays (not the league’s) seventh best prospect before the season began. His control, even in the minors, was barely passable so pay close attention to his 51% first-pitch strike rate and 40% balls thrown. Now this kid, who had no expectations when he was first-called up, suddenly has all eyes on him with expectations coming into this start. Faria now goes from a +135 pooch in Toronto to a +100 underdog in Detroit to a -145 favorite here against the Orioles, a team that can score in bunches and put anyone behind the eight-ball early. This is a classic case of too much hype in a small sample size.

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