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Posted at 11:20 AM EST.

7:15 PM EST. One of the toughest things to do in any sport is to come right back on the team you lost a bet with in the previous game. It’s something we’ve tweaked in our approach this year and will put it in play here after the Red Sox torched the Angels last night. Aside from the David Ortiz ceremony and the possible celebration hangover that might go with it, David Price cannot be favored in this range. Price continues to struggle since returning from his elbow injury, compiling a 5.09 ERA (5.35 xERA, 27% hit rate), 1.52 WHIP and 2.3 hr/9 over four games started in June. Despite a 63% first-pitch strike rate, he's allowed a HR in every outing, and continues to see negative results in his control, fly-ball rate (42%), groundball rate (33%) and hr/f (20%, all career-highs). Price has walked 14 batters over his past 28 innings and continues to be a massive risk when spotting prices like this. 

J.C. Ramirez has walked seven batters over his last 9.2 innings, as well as giving up four earned run or more in three of his last four games overall (8.53 ERA). That makes him a buy low target. Prior to his awful outing on the road against the Tigers, Ramirez had gone three straight outings of seven innings or more while allowing two earned runs or less. For the season, he's compiled a 4.03 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 8.3 K’s/9 with 22 walks over 80 innings. The Red Sox offense sits 18th in OPS at home (.764), and are last in **wOBA (weighted batted average) over the last seven days (.274). It may not seem like it on the surface, but there's some appeal here in Ramirez and while there are always risks involved in a pitcher in poor form, the price here seals the deal.  

**Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighing each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.  

Simply put, OPS and wOBA will lead you to very similar conclusions in most situations, but if you care about determining how well a player contributes to run scoring, wOBA is a more accurate representation of that contribution. OPS undervalues getting on base relative to hitting for extra bases and does not properly weigh each type of extra base hit.

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