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Posted at 10:50 AM EST.

2:10 PM EST. The Pirates lost 4-3 last night in one of the more bizarre losses you will ever see. Pittsburgh had great at bats all night long. They made every Brewers pitcher throw what seemed like 8-10 pitches every at-bat. They hit the ball hard all night long but all those hard hit balls were right at people and there was some outstanding defensive work by the Brewers too. Milwaukee had weak at bats all night long and seemed to go quickly and quietly all night with the exception of a very fortunate 2-run shot in the bottom of the 7th. It wasn’t just last night either though. Pittsburgh scored 15 runs combined in the first two games of this series and probably should have scored another eight last night. Milwaukee scored four times in the first two games. Pittsburgh is undervalued greatly here and we’re all over this one.

Chase Anderson comes in with a 2.92 ERA after 14 starts to go along with a very respectable BB/K split of 25/77 in 83 innings. However, there are plenty of warning signs still. Anderson is living proof that not all surface stats are to be trusted. His xERA is 4.35. Once Anderson’s high 78.5% strand rate normalizes, his ERA will rise. Aside from that, let’s call a spade a spade. Chase Anderson lucked into innings pitched by being on bad teams the last two seasons. As his first pitch strike rate keeps declining, his 10% swing and miss rate won't help him push his strikeout needle, so his command will erode further. He's already getting hit hard enough as it is but it’s not showing up on his surface stats. This now becomes a great sell-high opportunity.

Ivan Nova certainly had some highlights in pinstripes—he burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2011 (16-4, 3.70 ERA) and put up a 3.10 ERA two years later—but his tenure with New York was marred by injuries, rollercoaster production and inconsistent roles that included rotation/bullpen shuffles and a couple demotions to Triple-A. Nova didn’t get a chance to take that next step up, as Tommy John came calling in May 2014. Upon his return, Nova posted a 4.99 ERA over his next 191 IP until the Yankees traded him to Pittsburgh on August 1, 2016 for a pair of High-A prospects. In his short time with Pittsburgh, Nova's put up some of the best numbers in baseball—his 2.71 ERA since the trade is fifth-best in MLB over that span. Nova runs a four-pitch mix that features a pair of fastballs (two-seam, four-seam), a curveball, and a change-up. Nova’s groundball rate is extreme and elite and it’s worth noting that he’s producing a 50%+ groundball rate with three different offerings. Ivan Nova is pitching like an ace and it’s all legit.

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