BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +140 Bet365 -1½ +130 SportsInteraction -1½ +135 5DIMES -1½ +140

Posted at 10:50 AM EST.

7:35 PM EST. Many expected Jaime Garcia would have a tough time duplicating the 2.43 ERA he sported in 2015, but it was tough to foresee what transpired in 2016. Though his health finally cooperated, allowing him to complete more than 130 innings for the first time since 2011, his ERA soared to an unsightly 4.67 in 172 innings. Garcia’s worsened control and some bad hr/f luck were the culprits behind his disappointing 2016 campaign. This year, Garcia’s groundball rate of 57% ranks 2nd in MLB among qualified starting pitchers. His sinker/changeup combination has been deadly (sinker: 64% GB%, 33% usage; changeup: 63% GB%, 19% usage). His swing and miss rate was 10% in April, 12% in May and it’s 13% in June. It was 20% in his last start. Garcia will now face a team that can’t get out of its own way and he’ll also oppose one of the worst starters in the league, not to mention the worst bullpen.

We’ve been fading Matt Cain all season long and will continue to do so as long as he’s being handed the ball every five days. At home, Matt Cain is 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA but on the road he’s 0-4 in seven starts with an 7.46 ERA. Cain’s swinging strike rate in his last two starts was 4%. Overall on the year, it’s 5%. He’s throwing 87 MPH and now has a vile BB/K split of 32/46 in 74 innings. Over his last five starts covering 26 innings, Cain is 0-4 with a 5.14 ERA, a 5.91 xERA and a BB/K split of 9/13. His overall WHIP is 1.69 and 1.94 over his last five starts. The only reason that Matt Cain is pitching today is because the Giants are paying him 22.5M this season and they’ll pitch him until his arm falls off rather than pay him to sit in the dugout. Cain’s only chance at success is luck. This is a dead arm pitching at the highest level only because everything is about money. Matt Cain must be faded and should be the poster boy for why not all starting pitchers are worth your time. Fading Cain is a must.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.