BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +151 Bet365 -1½ +145 SportsInteraction -1½ +150 5DIMES -1½ +150

Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

8:10 PM EST. The Blue Jays are slight favorites here, which in itself is a little telling when you consider that Joe Biagini is 0-3 on the road with a 5.52 ERA. Biagini is 1-6 overall and he was absolutely crushed in his last start at home against the South Side in which he lasted one inning and surrendered eight runs. The Blue Jays were a 2-1 favorite that day and lost 11-4. Now we get Biagini at a rock bottom price, as he goes from a 2-1 favorite to a -103 (flat bet) underdog and the opposing pitcher he’ll face today (Tyson Ross) is absolutely worse than the pitcher he faced (Jose Quintana) last time out. That’s true value.

Play the Jays if you like at -103 or thereabouts because there is great value in that bet but we like to go for the throat so we’ll spot the runs and take back a nice price. Again, Joe Biagini’s stock is low but his skills are outstanding. Biagini had a big second half in 2016 out of the Jays bullpen. He transitioned to a starting role in May of this year and didn't skip a beat with 8 K’s/9, a 63% groundball rate and an xERA of 3.61. He threw strikes early (69% first-pitch strike %) and often (32% ball%). He missed bats too (12.7% swing and miss %). Biagini’s 58% groundball rate this year is elite. His 14% line-drive rate is also elite and one of the best in the game. Throw all these skills into one pitcher and you've got a sterling speculation. The oddsmakers know it and now you do too.

Tyson Ross has made one start this year and it came last week when he defeated the Mariners while allowing just two runs over 5.2 innings. That’s nice but it was much prettier on paper. Ross produced a swing and miss rate of 6% in that start. He also walked three batters. Every hard hit ball, and there were plenty of those, were hit right at people. After an awful Opening Day start for the Padres last year, shoulder inflammation eventually led to thoracic outlet syndrome surgery at the end of the season. Ross threw 5.1 innings all of last year and while we like his upside, it’s difficult to come back from a year off at the age of 30 and be successful right away. There are likely going to be some major bumps in the road for Ross and this is likely the first of those. The line says so.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.