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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

8:10 PM EST. Trevor Williams is trending the right way and so are the Pirates after a horrible start. Winners in seven of its last 10 and the first two games of this series, Pittsburgh has outscored the Crew 15-4 and there’s no reason they can’t keep it going here. Williams’ swing and miss rate in his last start was 14%. He has impeccable control with just 15 walks issued in 14 appearances and has not walked a batter in three of his last five starts. Williams is not a breakout target but his low 63% strand rate has led to a poor 5.16 ERA. Furthermore, he’s not the second best pitcher in this matchup, thus creating some good value here. 

The market overvalues ERA. In that regard, Junior Guerra comes in with a 2.84 ERA after six starts but that is one of MLB’s most misleading marks. Over his last 29 frames, Guerra has walked 17 and struck out 17. His 89% strand rate is 26 points higher than Williams’ and it is also the highest in the league among pitchers with five or more starts. We could attribute some of that good fortune to a guy with a high groundball rate that induces double-plays but that’s not the case here. Guerra’s groundball rate of 37% is 24th best out of 30 starters today. Guerra’s 5.56 xERA tells the real story of a pitcher with some of the weakest skills in the game. Guerra found some success as a rookie last year and it appears to have carried over into this year but it’s all an illusion. His underlying metrics scream that he’s not going to continue to produce the magic show he’s fooled so many with already. This is a weak, overvalued starter.

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