BEST LINES: Pinnacle +172 Bet365 +170 SportsInteraction +175 5DIMES +170

Posted at 11:00 AM EST

10:05 PM EST. Cody Bellinger is the talk of MLB right now with his record breaking 21st jack last night in his first 51 games. The previous record was 20 HR’s in 51 games but the point is with all that hype surrounding a player and team, one will pay a hefty and inflated price to back the Dodgers here with Brandon McCarthy taking the mound. McCarthy is a very decent pitcher but he’s not worthy of a price like this against a healthy and dangerous Mets’ lineup that scored six runs against Clayton Kershaw last night.

McCarthy has walked just 17 batters in 63 innings while striking out 51. That’s good, not great. His 3.14 ERA after 11 starts has also influenced this price but his xERA of 3.90 reveals the risk. In fact, McCarthy’s xERA over his past two starts was 6.35. McCarthy is 11 starts into the year after throwing just 26 innings all of last year, 14 months after TJS. A calf injury slowed him down last year, hip woes DLed him and he logged 14 innings (15 runs) afterward. Plenty of recent skills but we’ve seen him fall off a cliff too many times in the past to trust him as this big a favorite in this spot. Yeah, he could pitch well but he could also get blown up, as his 10% swing and miss rate, recent xERA’s and past history suggests.

Last year was a strong debut for a groundball-inducing rookie in a playoff chase. Robert Gsellman’s strikeout rate was higher in the majors than the 6.0 K’s/9 he posted in his 207 IP in the upper minors. On paper, Robert Gsellman has not pitched well in 2017 (5.50 ERA, 1.54 WHIP) but his skills haven't been as bad as his stats might indicate and they've actually been really good over his last five starts with 8.2 K’s/9, 1.8 BB’s/9, 49% grounders and a 3.90 xERA. That xERA is the exact same as McCarthy’s but one of these guys is almost a 2-1 favorite. As value bettors, that makes our choice for this game an easy one.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.