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Posted at 10:45 AM EST.

8:10 PM EST. When Zach Davies is favored, he’s instant fade material because he’s always at the mercy of batted balls in play (BABIP). In 73 frames, Davies has a weak BB/K split of 26/51. Our threshold for WHIP is 1.30. Anything above that puts a pitcher at the mercy of his strand rate. Davies WHIP is 1.54 so not only is he at the mercy of BABIP, he’s also at the mercy of his strand rate. Throwing 89 MPH with a pedestrian 8% swing and miss rate, Davies has more value to the Brewers than he has to you. His ERA/xERA split 4.91/4.83 tells us he’s going to allow five runs a game more times than not and that’s always worth fading.

Chad Kuhl is so close to being wickedly good but his surface stats say otherwise.(5.61 ERA, 1.53 WHIP). However, look under the hood and it’s an entirely different story. Kuhl’s skills with the bases empty are outstanding (2.71 xERA) but with runners on they’re not so good (5.22 xERA). With runners on, Kuhl throws more balls and strikes out less batters. That’s not unusual for young starters but with a minor tweak or two, it’s a correctable trait. What sticks out to us is Kuhl’s 14% swing and miss rate and his 51%/17%/32% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile over his last six starts. Hisa groundball rate in his last start was 67%. Kuhl’s xERA over his last five starts is 3.27. He’s working with the best pitching coach in the league and while his improvements are steadily gradual, they have gone mostly unnoticed. Chad Kuhl can pitch and he’ll now face a Brewers’ team that has never seen a pitch they didn’t like. Kuhl is quickly going to turn his skills in an attractive target and we’ll put that to the test here.

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