Cincinnati @ TAMPA BAY
Cincinnati +134 over TAMPA BAY

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +134 Bet365 +130 SportsInteraction +130 5DIMES +130

Posted at 11:45 AM EST

7:10 PM EST. Scott Feldman may or may not pitch well here but this is a pitcher’s park that suits him well. Feldman has a nice BB/K split of 7/27 over his last 34 innings and he’s pitching into the sixth inning with regularity. If things don’t work out well, so be it, but as value players, Cinci’s chances of winning here have to be considered just as good as the Rays’ chances so we’ll gladly step in. The price here is inflated because the Reds have dropped nine in a row but this team is too good to be losing at this pace. This is a great chance for the Reds to get off the mattress.

Jake Odorizzi’s profile keeps regressing. His fly-ball rate has ticked up again and is now at 42%. HR’s allowed are more persistent than ever, as he’s allowed at least one jack in nine straight games and damage inflicted by RHBs is once again on the upswing. Yet despite his unimpressive dominant starts/disaster starts splits, Odorizzi has still managed to retain a sub-4 ERA, eat innings and rack up some wins. His good control and upper hand versus lefties keeps his head above water, but this is really an average pitcher that has way more value taking back a price than spotting one. Incidentally, the Reds have more speed, more power, a better defense, a better bullpen and a better offense than the Rays. Yeah, we’ll bite.

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Our Pick

Cincinnati +134 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.68)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110