Houston @ OAKLAND
OAKLAND +136 over Houston

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +136 Bet365 +125 SportsInteraction +135 5DIMES +135

Posted at 11:45 AM EST

10:05 PM EST. For whatever reason, the A’s are an entirely different team at home. Remarkably, Oakland has nine lousy wins in 34 road games but at home, they’re an impressive 22-13. The A’s are a significant home pup here because the Astronauts are in and because they have a second time starter going named Daniel Gossett, who was blown up in Miami (3.1 IP – 6H – 6ER) last week in his first start of the year. You may have noticed that was on the road.

While Gossett lacks a true plus pitch, average-to-above-average command of four average-to-above-average pitches allows the former second-rounder’s (2014) overall profile to play up. He’s moved quickly through the Athletics system while averaging 2.7 BB’s/9 and 8.0 K’s/9 rates and has kept the ball on the ground (49.7% in 2017). Gossett's above-average fastball comes in around 93 MPH and features glove-side run and stays low in the zone. He also has a slider and a curve, with the slider morphing into more of a cutter now in the high 80s, as well as an above-average change, which can be a swing-and-miss pitch for him. The 24-year-old's delivery is smooth and clean, and he sequences his pitches well. Furthermore, Gossett has proven to be durable, tallying 27 starts in each of his last two seasons. Viewed separately, there’s nothing really plus in Gossett’s profile that would project him beyond the back of a rotation, but put it all together and he’s got a solid No. 3 starter’s upside. He did struggle out of the gate this season with a .271 oppBA and 6.27 ERA over his first four starts, but got things back on track with a .203 oppBA and 1.54 ERA over the month of May. He figures to be a little more settled here after his first MLB start.

At the ripe age of 30, Brad Peacock has come out of nowhere to raise some eyebrows with 58 K’s in 39 innings to go along with a 3.00 ERA. Peacock has been around (without success) since 2011. He’s been up and down between the minors and majors more times than his mom would like to remember. His best year was in 2014 when he made 24 starts and posted a 4.72 ERA. He went 4-9 that year with six pure quality starts.

Our notes on him coming into this year were as follows: Stayed healthy all year but skills in AAA were hardly a step forward. Walks remain an issue, stagnant K-rate now subpar in today's K-friendly age and swing and miss rate hints it will stay that way. Late-season MLB "success" a product of line-drive% fluke. Recent xERAs confirm that this former bright prospect has lost his shine.

Peacock is dealing it but we’re not going to allow five starts to override six years of poor performances. Yeah, some guys kick it into gear at age 30 but there are usually signs of a breakout. In Peacock’s case, there were no signs of this. In trying to study his form, we noticed that Peacock has lowered his arm slot, causing more spin on the ball but the results should not be this dramatic. Now that there is film out on Peacock after that change in delivery, there is a great chance that MLB hitters will adjust and turn him back into the below ordinary pitcher he’s always been. What we know for sure is that the A’s win at home and are undervalued again.

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Our Pick

OAKLAND +136 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.72)

Detroit +103 over Tampa Bay
Seattle +107 over Texas