Toronto @ TEXAS
TEXAS +108 over Toronto

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +108 Bet365 +105 SportsInteraction +110 5DIMES +110

Posted at 11:45 AM EST

8:10 PM EST. Talk about perseverance and one need not look past Rangers starter today, Austin Bibens-Dirkx. In early May, the 32-year-old was rewarded with his first ever promotion to the big leagues. Bibens-Dirkx has been a weary traveler since signing as a 16th-round pick of the Mariners in 2006. He was released in early 2009 and latched on with an independent league team before the Cubs signed him later in the year. He has also pitched in the Nationals, Rockies and Blue Jays organizations, as well as other independent leagues, most recently in 2016. He has a versatile, durable arm that allows him to contribute in a number of roles. He has been both a starter and reliever throughout his career and has been remarkably healthy. None of his pitches grade out as above average, though he mixes his deep repertoire well. His fastball sits between 87-92 mph and he complements it with a cutter, slider, curveball and change-up. Bibens-Dirkx has been a consistent strike-thrower and can locate his fastball to both sides of the plate. Because he lacks a true put-away pitch, his strikeout rate has been fringy at best. In 25 innings since his call-up over five relief appearances and two starts, Bibens-Dirkx has struck out just 13 batters. His 3.28 ERA is not going to hold up, as his xERA is 4.98. However, he’s kept the Rangers in every game. He’s paid his dues and he’s playing with house money now. If he gets blown up, so be it but we’ll take our chances with this four-pitch pitcher and the Rangers as a home dog.

After reeling off eight quality starts in his first 11 outings this season, Marco Estrada has hit a severe rough patch by lasting a combined 12.2 innings over three straight losses with a 12.08 ERA and 2.45 WHIP. In two of those starts, Estrada did not make it out of the fourth inning. He allowed 12 hits and six runs in 3.1 innings in his last start and allowed another nine hits and seven runs in 3.1 innings in his start against the Yanks. He’s been tagged for 28 hits (four jacks) over his last 12.2 innings. We hate to say we told you so, but we told you so. Estrada has ridden a wave of extreme luck since he joined the Blue Jays three seasons ago. He’s a fringe average pitcher with a great changeup but everything else in his arsenal is weak and well below average. The difference now is that batters are going up there looking for one pitch (the change) because they know it’s coming. Estrada is unique in that he throws that change more than any pitcher in baseball and he throws it more than once per every AB. Estrada’s fastball average is 89 MPH. His fly-ball rate is 45%, which is one of the worst rates in the game. His xERA is over his last six starts is 6.11 and over his incredible two-year luck run, it was 5.27. What’s wrong with Marco Estrada may be on the minds of fans across Canada but there is nothing wrong with him at all. He’s just gone back to being Marco Estrada, a pitcher that was demoted to the Brewers bullpen before the Jays picked him up and that didn’t even make the Toronto rotation when he first auditioned. The fade continues.

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Our Pick

TEXAS +108 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.16)

Washington +128 over Houston
Kansas City +122 over Baltimore
Milwaukee -1½ +144 over St. Louis
San Diego -103 over Toronto