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Posted at 10:45 AM EST

1:35 PM EST. Robbie Ray is paying off big time. His skills were great in May and a deeper look reveals his rotation-anchor upside. Pitching half his games at one of the best hitter’s parks in MLB, Ray has a 2.62/3.23 ERA/xERA split. In 82 innings, Ray was whiffed 107 batters while walking 35. His swing and miss rate is now up to an incredible 16% over his last six starts and the only thing missing from his outstanding profile is a groundball lean. Backing Robbie Ray isn’t even the best thing about this wager. Fading Ben Lively is.

In 21 innings over three starts since being called up, Ben Lively has an ERA of 3.00. We’re here to tell you how ridiculous that is. In 21 innings, Ben Lively has walked seven batters while striking out a mere five! He’s almost always around the plate and batters are always making contact but those hard hit balls have been right at folks.  Lively has a weak batted ball profile of 39% grounders, 22% line-drives and 39% fly-balls. Lively has been able to avoid big innings against and disasters in this small sample size but we can assure you they are forthcoming. A fourth-round pick out of Central Florida in 2013, Lively has moved up the ranks relatively quickly for a guy who lacks a plus pitch of any sort. Ben Lively has a xERA of 6.12, which is more than double his actual ERA. His very fortunate strand and hit rates are keeping him in the game. Starting pitchers like Lively have razor thin margins of error. When one they get struck with some bad luck or their luck normalizes, it all can go bust in a hurry and we’re betting his luck runs out here.    

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