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Posted at 10:45 AM EST.

2:10 PM EST. David Holmberg has a good sinking fastball that reaches the low 90s, along with an average slider and a low-80s changeup that is plus. The 6'3", 245-pounder can use his height to pound low in the zone and force ground balls, but when he loses command, he can be roughed up as he was last year (with Cinci). Holmberg has made 11 appearances this season with the first eight being in relief and the last three coming as a starter. He’s very likely to be on a 80-85 pitch count but we can live with whatever happens. He’s already faced Cleveland, Detroit and Boston in his first three starts and didn’t look out of place so he’s not going to be uneasy when facing any team. He is a risk to be sure but Baltimore favored in Chicago here is incorrect. 

Where do we start? How about Baltimore’s home/road splits? The O’s are 21-10 at home but on the road, they have a lousy 11 wins in 33 games and now their worst pitcher is favored on the road? Tillman is being paid 10M this year so the Orioles will stomach whatever happens on the mound at least for the next three months and we’ll be there to fade him almost every time. Over the past six months of baseball (the last three months of last year and the first three months this year) there is not a pitcher in baseball (including the minors) that has fallen off a bigger cliff than Tillman. You would be hard pressed to find a pitcher with worse skills too. In 30 innings, Tillman has walked 18 and struck out 20. Over his last 21 innings, he has walked 13 and struck out 12. His WHIP of 2.08 is the worst in baseball but he doesn’t qualify with just 30 innings pitched. Over the last six months of baseball, Tillman has posted career-worst command, skills, and xERA (7.78) while his league worst 44% first-pitch strike rate continues to speak to his strained relationship with the strike zone. The pitcher you remember from years past no longer exists and in terms of pitchers worthy of being road chalk, Chris Tillman should be dead last on that list.

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