Milwaukee vs ST. LOUIS
Milwaukee +134 over ST. LOUIS

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +134 Bet365 +130 SportsInteraction +135 5DIMES +130

Posted at 10:45 AM EST.

7:15 PM EST. The Cardinals continue to struggle but they continue to be priced like they’re in first place. Aside from a shaky defense, St. Louis is 30-34 and just a game over .500 at home. 

Coming off an injury-riddled 2016 campaign, Michael Wacha looked like he was back to full strength early on, as his ERA stood at 2.74 through seven starts. He's been blown up in his last three though, bringing his mark for the season up to 4.50 and the overall picture is mediocre once again. There's nothing wrong with Wacha’s velocity or his ability to miss bats, even during his recent rough stretch. That being said, his swing and miss rate doesn't support a strikeout per inning, so his K-rate will probably drop back towards his career norms. He had decent control through his first seven outings, but with nine walks in 11.1 innings over his last three, his control is now the worst it's ever been. On a positive note, he did have a 66 percent first-pitch strike rate over those three starts, and in his last two, he's thrown a higher percentage of pitches in the zone than any of his other starts. The balls in play against him are in line with his past numbers, but he's been hurt a little bit by both poor defense behind him and a slightly inflated home run per fly-ball rate. Wacha has been getting knocked around lately after a hot start, but nothing in his game log stands out as anything out of the ordinary. 

Michael Wacha could be the poster boy for what we’re preaching and that is nobody can predict outcomes. His skills have been the same pretty much all year but he’ll throw a gem one game, get whacked the next and then go six innings and allow three or four runs the next time out. He’s a risk when favored and he has value when being offered a price. He plays for a team around .500 and he’ll be facing a team around .500. Wacha will do well if balls are hit at people but he won’t if they’re not and some hits are strung together. Many pitchers are at the mercy of batted balls in play, team defense and other variables and Michael Wacha is no exception. He’s a viable mid-rotation starter without the type of ceiling some were expecting when he first made a splash back in 2013. Zach Davies is very much in the same boat as Wacha so the choice here is not a difficult one. Milwaukee’s chances of winning are at least equal to the Cards’ chances and therefore the price prompts us to step in.

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Our Pick

Milwaukee +134 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.68)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110