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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

8:10 PM EST. Sam Gaviglio has an excellent feel for pitching and can command his sinker/slider combination impeccably well. He works to both sides of the plate and induces a high number of groundballs by getting great, late action on his fastball. He’s only made five starts but over 29 innings but his 53%/18%/29% groundball/ line-drive/flyball profile is one of the best in the game. Caviglio’s groundball rate in his last game was 76%. Gaviglio’s best offering may be his change-up. He repeats his arm speed consistently and it gives him a deceptive weapon against left-handed hitters. Despite all the accolades, he doesn’t throw very hard—sits in the high-80s—and he is a pitch-to-contact guy but he does have 19 K’s in 29 innings. An elite groundball pitcher in these hitting conditions at Target Field is worth getting behind but this is more of a fade against a pitcher in line for some major regression. 

With 2,200+ career innings of a 4.02 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, you'd have been pretty safe to expect little from Ervin Santana this season. Santana’s 2.20 ERA and 0.89 WHIP through 13 starts in 2017 has not gone unnoticed and now his stock is through the roof. We’re sellers because Santana is actually posting some of the worst skills of his career. Look at the 2½-run gap between xERA and ERA. Santana's benefited from an other-worldly hit%/strand% combo. Santana's posting fewer Ks than ever before, and it corresponds with a drop in his swing and miss rate to its current 8%. Overall, Santana has an ugly BB/K split of 33/63 in 90 innings. He's been unable to sustain 2016's control improvement and his underlying first-pitch strike and Ball% remain below league average. Santana's current pace simply isn't sustainable. The last starting pitcher to post a sub-2.50 ERA with skills this poor was Clay Buchholz in 2010 before he blew up. We told you about him and we warned you about Marco Estrada too, who is in the midst of blowing up and Santana is in line to do the same. With fewer strikeouts, more walks, and an insane amount of luck, it's time to cash out on Santana and sell. Things will get worse from here.

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