Tampa Bay @ TORONTO
Tampa Bay +144 over TORONTO

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +144 Bet365 +140 SportsInteraction +150 5DIMES +140

Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. With a reputation of consistently out-pitching his skills, Marco Estrada has been on our fade radar for at least a couple of years now but you may have noticed we have not faded him as much this year. That’s because his skills this year are actually better than ever in terms of strikeouts. In fact, Estrada has struck out 90 batters in 78 innings while throwing more strikes than ever before too. Our knock on Estrada was that he was all luck. We called him an extreme fly-ball pitcher with horrible command and and that was all true at the time. Here’s where it gets a little more interesting. Estrada led MLB in changeups thrown in 2016 and he's throwing even more of them now (28% of pitches in 2016; 36% in 2017). The pitch has produced an 18% swing and miss rate on its own. He's throwing a lot more strikes, too and his command sits at its highest level in years. His sub-indicators suggest it can stick but it’s not working to his advantage. You see, because he throws 89 MPH, batters were chasing pitches outside the zone and helping him out. The fact that he’s throwing more strikes has hurt him. Furthermore, batters can sit on the changeup all day long because they know they are going to get one. Hitters are laying back on Estrada and the result is an alarming 26% line-drive rate. Estrada’s batted ball profile of 30% grounders, 26% line-drives and 44% fly-balls is wretched. His luck has run out after two years and we’ll say it again that allowing warning track shots is not a skill. Lastly, these Rays know him well and have hit him well too with a combined team BA against Estrada of .301 in 155 AB’s with eight jacks. Estrada’s ERA/xERA over his past five starts is 5.59/4.66.

Jacob Faria was leading the International League in strikeouts prior to his promotion and his deception could continue to help him register swings-and-misses at the major league level. He is a tall righty who throws downhill and uses his 88-94 mph sinker to induce his fair share of groundballs. He shows an outstanding feel for changing speeds and has the confidence to use his plus changeup in any count. Faria has success pitching backwards at times and uses his change-up to set up his other offerings. In his first start against the South Side last week, Faria threw six sweet innings of three hit ball with a BAA of .142, a WHIP of 0.79 and an xERA of 2.26. He walked one and struck out five. Of course, this isn’t the White Sox he’ll be facing but he catches the Blue Jays returning home from a West Coast trip and a day off and that’s a favorable spot for any pitcher. Faria put up great numbers in his minor league career with a 3.13 ERA, 9.8 K’s/9 and an oppBA of .204. Rookie pitchers are always risky but this one has the talent to be sure and in this case, the risk is worth the reward.

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Our Pick

Tampa Bay +144 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.88)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110