Colorado @ PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH -1½ +159 over Colorado

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +159 Bet365 -1½ +155 SportsInteraction -1½ +150 5DIMES -1½ +150

Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. While the Pirates continue to frustrate their backers, a two-game win streak puts them in a much better state of mind after that morale lowering series in Baltimore last week. In fact, the Pirates have been in position to win five in a row but at least this is a start. The Pirates also belted out 13 hits on Friday, 18 hits on Saturday and 11 hits on Sunday, which also makes a huge difference.

By contrast, the Rockies had a huge uplifting weekend series in Chicago. They played the champs four times and nearly completed the sweep yesterday but still won three of four. It was a packed house all weekend long and the Rockies put the league on notice that they’re for real. Now they’ll travel to Pittsburgh to play in a more subdued atmosphere and chances are great that the Rocks will suffer a mental and physical letdown. This line strongly suggests that too, which brings us to the starters.

Kyle Freeland comes in with a 3.34 ERA after 12 starts, which appears even better when you consider that he pitches half his games at Coors but it truly looks like things will turn bumpy soon for Freeland. His great success has more to do with a high strand % and low hr/f than skill. His xERA (4.87) shows that he's due for a sizable ERA correction. His command has been lousy (and declining as he's moved up the ladder), and neither his K-rate history nor his current first-pitch strike rate and swinging strikes offer any hope for improvement. And a pitcher with control problems who puts a lot of balls in play is always a big risk. Our scouting report of Freeland stated that his change-up lags behind his fastball and slider in quality, adding that the lack of a dependable third pitch complicates his true outcome. Freeland's poor skills thus far seem to back up that assessment. His 1.34 WHIP confirms that luck has played a major role and we all know luck doesn’t hold up over time.

James Taillon will be back just five weeks after undergoing testicular cancer surgery. In 14 innings during his minor league rehab, Taillon had 21/3 K/BB. He was 2-1 with a 3.31 ERA (3.82 xERA) at the time of his cancer diagnosis, which is good, not great, however, this kid is going to be a beast sooner rather than later. Last year, Taillon went 5-4 with a 3.38 ERA in 104 innings. It was an excellent debut, especially considering he was coming off two lost seasons following TJ surgery. There are nothing but positive signs here from stellar control to a strong groundball tilt to off the charts command versus righties. Taillon also has a top prospect pedigree and his second half rise in swing and miss rate hint at potential for higher strikeouts so his rise to ace status could happen quickly. Get him before it does.

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Our Pick

PITTSBURGH -1½ +159 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.18)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110