BEST LINES: Pinnacle +102 Bet365 -105 SportsInteraction +100 5DIMES +100

Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

8:10 PM EST. We’re not going to focus on Mike Pelfrey here because he’s a weak pitcher with very little upside that could get blown up here. The focus here is fading the Orioles on the road and here’s why…..

The Orioles not only were swept in New York but they were outscored 38-7 in the three games. Getting blown out is no big deal but being behind 6-0 in the first inning on Saturday and 5-0 in the first inning on Sunday is a big deal. That makes for a very long weekend of knowing you’re going to lose before the game is two innings old. It also taxes the bullpen in a big way. Now the Orioles will drag their poor form and sorry asses to the South Side of Chicago as a road favorite with Wade Miley pitching.

Miley’s numbers look good on paper (63 IP – 58 K’s – 3.27 ERA) but underneath tells a different story. Miley has walked a troubling 34 batters. His first-strike rate in his last game was 33% and his overall balls thrown % is the fourth worst mark in the game. Over his last 27 innings, Miley has walked 11 batters and struck out 15. Miley’s 58 K’s in 63 innings also looks good but the sub-indicators do not support those K’s. Miley’s swing and miss rate is 8%. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts is 6%. This is a pitcher that is getting by on his 82% strand rate and very good groundball rate. His numbers scream regression (4.85 xERA) and his historical dominant start/disaster start split points to low ceiling. Finally, Miley is a lefty and it may surprise you to learn that the South Side own the best team batting average in the majors versus lefties and the second worst versus righties. As a dog versus southpaws at home, the South Side are very worthy. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.