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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

10:10 PM EST. As Bronson Arroyo’s fastball velocity continues to slide (it tops off at 84 MPH now), his ERA and xERA will remain at or get worse than the nightmare it’s already at this year. When you throw that slow with so many fly-balls, those baseballs are inevitably going to leave the park at a high clip. In 63 innings, Arroyo has been tagged for 20 jacks. His 31%/48% fly-ball/groundball split is wretched. His first-pitch strike rate over his last seven starts is 52%. Arroyo tried throwing more first-pitch strikes but there's no fixing this without velocity and/or groundball %. Does he even get another contract? Probably not. We’ll fade until Arroyo isn’t showing up on the probable’s anymore.

We wrote back in April that Luis Perdomo was a work in progress worth monitoring, as he displayed some interesting attributes beneath the unsightly surface stats in 2016. Despite the 5.47 ERA through his first 54 IP of 2017, there are many reason for optimism, as Perdomo’s skill are intriguinging. He has always done a fine job of keeping the ball on the ground and his groundball rate (66%) has reached elite status in 2017. Perdomo’s groundball rate is tops in the league among pitchers with 40 or more innings. Perdomo hasn’t been able to maintain the second half 2016 control gains, but his current rate is supported by Ball% and his first-pitch strike rate hints at a little additional upside. Heightened usage of his best swing-and-miss offering—the curve (23%)—has been the driving force behind the swing and miss supported strikeout growth (Usage 2016/2017: 20%/32%). Perdomo has been plagued by strand% and hr/f misfortune, as evidenced by an xERA nearly two full runs better than his ERA. The results on paper haven’t been there for Perdomo but that should not detract from the real growth he has displayed in 2017. The 23-year-old has already shown the capacity and willingness to make adjustments, as seen by the drastic changes in his pitch mix since the first half of 2016 (scrapping his ineffective four-seam fastball in favor of more sinkers and curves) so with better luck, there is going to be much brighter days ahead. Start betting him before the market catches up. Perdomo in the -120 range versus Arroyo is grossly underpriced so play it any way you want. We’ll spot the 1½-runs.

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