Philadelphia @ ST. LOUIS
Philadelphia +135 over ST. LOUIS

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +134 Bet365 +135 SportsInteraction +135 5DIMES +132

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

2:15 PM EST. Adam Wainwright clearly isn't the front of the rotation anchor he once was but he’s priced like it here because he plays for the well-bet Cardinals and he’s going up against the Phillies. Like Wainwright, the Cardinals have been just as unreliable. Since returning from injury last season, Wainwright has nary missed a turn. He has even reached his pre-injury strikeout rate and his middle months were vintage However, there are more red flags than green ones. Wainwright’s command has been spotty throughout his return. His first-pitch strike rate is down to 55% this year and he’s walked 26 batters over 65 frames. Lefties continue to abuse him. The verdict is that Wainwright requires more TLC than ever before. His velocity is declining and his average fastball now is just 90.1 MPH, which coincides with his declining swing and miss rate that was at 10% in April, 9% in May and 8% over his last three starts. With a 4.82 ERA (4.55 xERA) and a 1.56 WHIP, this is not a pitcher worth gambling on but Aaron Nola is.

Keep close tabs on Nola because there is great profit potential in that arm of his. Nola posted a 2.65 ERA through 12 starts last year, which was supported by a sub-3 xERA and a 85/15 K/BB split. Nola’s terrific K-rate and groundball % remained intact during a mysterious hit%-and-BB-fueled collapse that followed. His season ended in a late July DL stint and he got off to a late start this year so he’s very much under the radar. In seven starts thus far, Nola has a BB/K split of 12/35 in 40 frames. His has walked six and struck out 20 over his last 24 innings. Aaron Nola’s groundball rate is 51%. His line drive rate over his last four starts is a league best 14% and an elite 17% on the year. Nola has his strength (94 MPH fastball), confidence and groove back and is absolutely one of today’s most underpriced assets. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.



Our Pick

Philadelphia +135 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.70)

San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110