L.A. Angels @ HOUSTON
HOUSTON -1½ +108 over L.A. Angels

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +108 Bet365 -1½ +100 SportsInteraction -1½ +100 5DIMES -1½ +105

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

As his 4.49 ERA and 1.32 WHIP suggest, Jess Chavez has struggled between Toronto last year and L.A. last year and this year. His biggest issue is a higher-than-usual hr/f that subsides in his more pitcher-friendly Angels Stadium but in HR friendly venues like this one, Chavez cannot avoid trouble. Chavez’s swinging strike rate is down to 8% and 7% in his last five starts. He’s made two career starts at Minute Maid Park and has a 7.94 ERA there after allowing 14 hits (three jacks) and 11 runs in 11.1 innings. He'll likely continue to toil in pitching's No Man's Land. In other words, he’s a swingman with a rotation spot for now who's more valuable to his big league club than he is to you.

David Paulino has just 17 MLB innings to his name. Last year, Pauilino went 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in 7 innings for the Astronauts and it was our first prolonged glimpse of this towering hurler, who rapidly rose from the Gulf Coast League. The early returns were solid thanks to pinpoint control and he's missed bats at every level. Limited experience (203 career IP; TJS in 2014) suggests patience is needed, but fantasy owners and DFS players should get in line. Paulino began the season late due to a bone bruise in his elbow but Houston saw enough talent in his three minor-league starts to bring him back to the majors. He appeared in three games (including one start) with the Astros in 2016. Paulino is tall and angular and set a career-high in IP in 2016 despite a team suspension and sore shoulder. His talent and upside are off the charts. He offers incredible arm strength that can pump 91-97 mph fastballs into the strike zone. For his size (6’7”, 215 pounds), he consistently repeats his delivery and shows good control and command. He has a very solid curveball in addition to a sub-par slider. The curve is his go-to pitch for strikeouts, but he can also deceive hitters with a change-up that features outstanding arm speed. It isn’t often one sees a pitcher this size have the arm action, clean delivery, and pitch mix that he exhibits. For his career, he has a 2.35 ERA, 2.5 BB’s/9 and 9.9 K’s in the minors. In two starts for the Astros covering 10 innings, Paulino has walked just two and struck out 12. On a Sunday afternoon in Houston, fans are flocking there today to get a glimpse of this rookie phenom and we’re betting he delivers. If he doesn’t, the Astros bats can.   

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Our Pick

HOUSTON -1½ +108 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.16)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110