Miami @ PITTSBURGH
Miami -1½ +144 over PITTSBURGH

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +144 Bet365 -1½ +140 SportsInteraction +140 5DIMES -1½ +140

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

4:05 PM EST. Fading the Pirates is rarely a bad idea and with the Marlins being one of the hottest teams in the game, we’ll come right back on them here against Trevor Williams. Williams is a rookie that has now appeared in 12 games with the last six coming as a starter. Williams has been knocked around in the majors (career 5.88 ERA), but a little over a run's worth of that can be attributed to bad luck on strand % and hr/f. His higher K-rate in the majors has led to more acceptable command but most of that growth has come as a reliever. He has 8.9 K’s/9 in 20 innings out of the bullpen but only a 5 K’s/9 over six starts. Just about everything in the 25-year-old Williams's skill history screams "average pitcher." His 4.72 xERA so far in the majors suggests he barely has enough to stick around and he’ll likely bounce back and forth between relieving and starting. Williams will almost certainly get booted out of the rotation once Jameson Taillon is ready to return so he’ll feeling a bit of heat today as well. He’ll now face a red-hot offense.

Miami scored 12 times last night. They have now won 10 of its past 13 games and will send their best pitcher to the hill here. Dan Straily is dealing it right now. He has a BB/K split of 7/32 over his last 30 innings with the support of a 13% swing and miss rate. With a 3.59/3.91 ERA/xERA split, a 1.09 WHIP and 69 K’s in 68 innings, Straily has found a nice groove. The Marlins bats should do the rest.

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Our Pick

Miami -1½ +144 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.88)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110