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Posted at 10:45 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. The Pirates are coming off a couple of sick losses in Baltimore that may be hard to rebound from. Up 6-2 going to the ninth last night, Trey Mancini hit a two-run shot with two out in the ninth to tie it after the O’s scored two runs earlier in the inning. Mancini then hit a three-run shot in the 11th. On Tuesday night, the Pirates had a 5-3 lead in the ninth and Tony Watson couldn’t hold that one either. That’s two blown saves in back-to-back nights for Watson so he’s the new mop-up man in Pittsburgh. Nevertheless, Pittsburgh still scored 11 runs in the two games there and should have won both games. In a three-game set against the Mets prior to playing Baltimore, the Pirates scored 12 and 11 runs respectively in two of the three games.

Now the Pirates will send their best starter to the mound in Gerrit Cole. There has been many debates on whether or not Cole is an ace and we’re here to tell you that he is. How many pitchers in the last 50 years have gone at least 200 innings with 200 strikeouts in their age-24 season? Just 27. Some others on that list include the likes of Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, and Tom Seaver. Of that list of 27, Cole’s ERA of 2.60 was matched by only six. Gerrit Cole’s 2016 did not quite meet expectations, as he pitched 116 innings with 7.60 K’s per 9 and an ERA of 3.88. However, the season was marred by elbow injuries and while there was never any structural damage; it was still very sore. The side injury was the reason for his rough season because for pitchers, the core is very important. Cole put more pressure on his arm because he was having trouble with his core, which in turn probably threw off his delivery a bit, which would explain the control issues. The velocity was always there, as he maintained 95.2 mph on the heater, but the control was not. The message of this 2016 injury section is that these injuries weren’t a chronic issue. It was a side injury that led to an arm injury that made up one frustrating season.

Now on to 2017 with Cole entering spring training healthy and on time. The Pirates understandably took it easy on him, bringing him along a bit slower than his peers and he made it through spring healthy and ready for opening day in Boston. He was hitting upper 90s with his fastball and cruised through the first four innings, holding the Boston lineup scoreless. Things went south from there, as Cole got hit hard with two outs in the 5th, and he gave up five runs, leaving him with a 9.00 ERA after start #1. It’s the next five starts that told us Cole is back.

In those, Cole pitched 31 innings, striking out 32 (9.3 K/9), and walking six (1.7 BB/9), with a 2.61 ERA. Do those numbers sound familiar? Those are right in line with those 2015 numbers and he’s becoming a more complete pitcher this year. Cole has been focusing on his change, throwing it 12.5% of the time, compared to his previous career-high of 5%, and hitters are only hitting .111 off the pitch, with no extra-base hits. We’ve all known about Cole’s elite fastball, and with a serviceable change, he can now keep hitters off that heater. Cole is just entering his prime and has already produced an ace-like season before. His BB/K split this year is 16/61 in 72 frames. His velocity remains high (96-mph fastball), he's missing bats at a decent level (10% swing and miss rate) and he's throwing strikes early (68% first-pitch strikes) and often (33% ball%). Cole will now face a Marlins’ team coming off a three-game set at Wrigley so this is a letdown spot for the Fish, which brings us to our next angle.

Pitchers’ coming off no-hitters must be faded and that applies here. Average pitchers coming off a no-no are in big trouble next time out and that also applies here. The angle here is to bet against a pitcher coming off a no-hitter and that’s the real reason for this choice. Edinson Volquez threw a no-hitter against the Diamondbacks in his last start so this is the follow up. This is a pitcher whose skills have been wobbly for awhile. Last year they locked arms and stepped off the ledge. His weak command led the plunge and so fewer strikes yielded the second most earned runs in MLB. Volquez continues to have control issues with 33 walks issued in 62 innings. He’s thrown more disasters over the past three seasons then most. The emotional and physical toll a no-hitter takes is very likely going to be on full display here.

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