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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

8:10 PM EST. The Brewers scored five early runs yesterday on Matt Cain but probably should have scored another three or four more. We’re on record as saying the Crew was sold short last night and they’re being sold short again here. It’s either a case of the market not believing in what the Brewers are doing and/or giving the Giants far too much credit. Either way, we’ll look to take advantage of the market’s perception of this matchup.

We’ve been fading Ty Blach all season and we’re not about to ease up here. Blach's biggest shortcoming is pretty clear. He simply does not strike out enough batters and that really limits his upside. His early MLB K-rate and swing and miss results are highly discouraging and his minor league numbers don't offer much hope either. This is a stiff with 23 K’s in 58 innings, which is the second worst strikeout rate in the game among qualified starters. Blach is averaging 3.5 K’s/9, which is wretched considering he’ll usually face three pitchers a game. He’s always at the mercy of BABIP and strand percentage fluctuations. Much like Matt Cain, Blach has been aided by AT&T Park. On the road, also like Cain, it’s an entirely different story where in 22.1 innings, Blach has allowed 28 hits and 16 runs for an ERA of 5.64. He has 8 K’s in those 22.1 road innings. Blach is currently filling in for the injured Madison Bumgarner but given how poor his underlying skills have been, there's no guarantee he'll be able to stick in the rotation for the duration of Bumgarner's stay on the DL. He’s the type of pitcher that you might think could use more time in the minors, but at 26, he's already logged 328 IP at Triple-A. What you see is what you get and it’s not pretty.

It might surprise you to learn that Jimmy Nelson found himself among the top-10 most skilled starters during the month of May: 10.1 K’s/9, 2.3 BB’s/9 and 48% grounders. Those marks were backed by this trifecta of supporting skills too: 11.3% swing and miss rate, 66% first-pitch strike rate and 32% ball%. Nelson has a strong 16/65 BB/K split in 64 innings. In his last start, Nelson was throwing 95 MPH and his swing and miss rate was 18%. Over his last five starts, he’s whiffed 40 batters in 33 innings. This dude is dialed in with an outstanding 3.32 xERA and we’re thrilled to get the Crew again at a reduced price to beat these pitiful Giants.

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