San Fran @ MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE -1½ +161 over San Fran

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +165 Bet365  -1½ +165 SportsInteraction  -1½ +130 5DIMES  -1½ +160

Posted at 11:00 AM EST. 

7:40 PM EST. The Brewers are a -125 favorite here, which is way the f**k off because they should be -160 or thereabouts. If this game was in San Fran and the Giants had Chase Anderson on their team and the Crew had Matt Cain on theirs, San Francisco would be at least a -170 favorite. That said, we’re not interested in spotting a quarter with the Brewers so once again, we’ll gamble a bit and lay the extra half run because there is tremendous value in that price too.

Chase Anderson has 29 K’s over his last 28 innings and comes into this start with an ERA/xERA split of 3.30/3.86. Anderson is pitching well and he usually gives his team a chance to win. We’ll elaborate more on Anderson when the time is right but he doesn’t have to be great here, as this one is all about fading Matt Cain.

Matt Cain is throwing every five days because the Giants are paying him 22.5M this season. If everything wasn’t about money, Cain would be on the golf course or mowing his lawn because he does not belong on the mound anymore. AT&T Park can make a lot of weak pitchers look good, like it did with Barry Zito for years and others. However, you get these stiffs on the road and it’s an entirely different story. At home, Cain is 3-2 with a 1.82 ERA but on the road, he’s 0-2 in five starts with an 8.28 ERA. Cain’s swinging strike rate in his last start was 1%. If pitchers didn’t bat, it might have been 0%. In 25 road innings over those five starts, Cain has walked 16 batters and struck out 12. Overall, Cain’s swing and miss rate is 4%. His overall WHIP is 1.54 but on the road it is 1.88. Matt Cain cannot avoid trouble here. He’ll be pitching with men on base all game and he’s likely not going to make it past four innings. The Giants weak pen will follow against a Brewers’ offense that is completely legit and very dangerous.

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Our Pick

MILWAUKEE -1½ +161 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.30)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110