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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. 

9:40 PM EST. Robbie Ray is coming off a complete game shutout in Pittsburgh in which he struck out 10 batters. Complete game shutouts these days are becoming as rare as no-hitters. Ray has now thrown three successive gems in a row in which he threw seven innings or more and didn’t allow a single run! Ray has now thrown 23.2 consecutive shutout innings with a BB/K split of 3/25 so his stock is through the roof. However, all three were on the road. Before those three games, Ray had an ERA of 4.57. His ERA at Chase Field is 6.75. He’s thrown 110, 102 and 115 pitches respectively over those past three starts so this could one in which he’s just not as sharp. Ray has been featured as an undervalued pitcher in this space for a couple of years now so what he’s doing comes as no surprise to us. He has the goods but the Diamondbacks decided to skip over him on Sunday to give him an extra day rest and now he’ll break routine to pitch here. Robbie Ray is legit but his 33% groundball rate does not and has not played well at this park. You will pay a hefty price to back Ray here against an unknown pitcher with just two major-league starts to his credit.

Through two starts in the big leagues, Padres right-hander Dinelson Lamet has caught our attention. On Tuesday night against the Cubs, Lamet generated an outstanding 17 swinging strikes over 93 pitches, including 10 with his slider. Lamet has generated 28 swinging strikes through 184 pitches in his two starts, a 15.2% rate, which is well above the major-league average of 9.6% for starting pitchers. He has struck out 16 of the 42 batters he has faced, a 38% rate, which is also well above the major-league average of 20.3% for starting pitchers. He’s kept free passes under control, walking three of the 42 batters he’s faced, a 7.1% rate, slightly better than the league average of 8.3%.

It’s only two starts, but Lamet’s pure stuff jumps off the page. Lamet has averaged 95 mph with his fastball and has topped out at 98 mph. The average starting pitcher sits at 92.5 mph with his fastball. Here’s Lamet striking out Michael Conforto with 98 mph gas in the first inning of his start against the Mets last week.

Lamet’s slider has been highly effective. He’s generated 15 swinging strikes through 61 sliders thrown, a 24.5% rate with league average swinging-strike rate on a slider at around 15%. The pitch has sat between 83-88 mph and averaged about 86 mph. Here’s a back-foot slider thrown from Tuesday night that strikes out Jon Jay:

Lamet has also flashed a nasty change up. Lamet has sat 88-92 mph with his changeup and showcased some vicious movement on a few of them. This is a hard 92 mph change up that gets Jay Bruce to flinch before running over the plate for a called strike:

This is not the second coming of Clayton Kershaw here but Lamet’s performance has been too eye opening to ignore. His ability to miss bats with premium velocity and a nasty slider looks super legit, and he’s flashed a changeup that might be able to keep lefties off his fastball if he can find consistency with it. The 92 mph change he threw to Jay Bruce in his first big-league inning jumped out and showed a glimpse of what could be if he could harness a good third pitch to complement his electric fastball and slider combo. There will be growing pains but at this price against a team that has never seen him before, Lamet and the Padres are worth a bet. 

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