BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +130 Bet365 -1½ +130 SportsInteraction -1½ +130 5DIMES -1½ +130

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

7:40 PM EST. Alright, let’s try this again. Last week we cited Washington as a sucker play when they were a -130 favorite with Strasburg on the hill in Oakland. Washington won 13-3 so it wasn’t much of sucker play at all but that soft line appeared too easy. We’ll put that to the test again here.

That San Francisco is favored here makes no sense either. Milwaukee is in first place in the NL Central and they’re also 15-10 at home while the Giants are in last place in the NL West and they have 10 lousy road wins in 31 tries. Next, Jeff Samardzija is 1-7 with a 4.63 ERA while Junior Guerra is 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA after two starts. Guerra has as many wins in three starts as Samardzija has in 11. The Giants are also coming off a weekend series in Philadelphia in which they lost the last two against the then coldest team in baseball with MLB’s worst record while the Brewers just split with the Dodgers and could’ve won three of four after losing 2-1 in 12 innings in the opener of that series with Clayton Kershaw on the hill. Again, San Fran favored here makes no sense. The oddsmakers are counting on a huge game from Samardzija and they might just be right. Under those ugly surface stats, Samardzija has the third best xERA in the game at 2.99. He has a sick BB/K split of 11/84 in 72 frames, which bodes well here against a Brewers team that has struck out more times than any team in the game except Tampa Bay. Over his last 33 innings, Samardzija has walked one batter and struck out 38. Dude is dealing it but has been the unluckiest pitcher in the game and if things truly do even out over time, the Giants are in line to win this one going away.

The oddmakers were wrong last week when the house got buried in that aforementioned game in Oakland. They aren’t likely to be wrong again here. 

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