Pittsburgh @ N.Y. METS
Pittsburgh +109 over N.Y. METS

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +109 Bet365 +105 SportsInteraction +110 5DIMES +106

Posted at 11:00 AM EST. 

1:10 PM EST. Trevor Williams throws strikes. He’s only walked four batters over his last 25 frames and that goes hand in hand with what he did in the spring. In fact, the 6'3", 230-pound Williams had a great spring, striking out 18 in 17.2 IP while walking only two. Trevor Williams is a rookie also but he’s paid his dues and has a swing and miss rate of 10%. He also has a four-pitch mix that he can throw for strikes at any time. Williams doesn’t have any real put-away pitch but he’s adept at keeping hitters off-balance. That said, this one is all about fading Tyler Pill.

Yeah, yeah, we know we said we wouldn’t bet the Pirates again but that was just steam. We have to continue to play value and we promise you that Tyler Pill is not even close to being major-league ready. Pill is coming off a beauty against the Brewers ---on paper but it was one of the luckiest starts you will ever see. His pitching line in his first start was 5.1 innings pitched, six hits and one earned run but under the hood reveals a completely different story. In those 5.1 innings, Pill walked four batters and struck out four batters but his swing and miss rate of 3% says the Brewers were a little too anxious to hit his 88 MPH fastball. Pill was pitching with traffic all game and left with a 1.83 WHIP and a BABIP of .125. A 3% swing and miss rate is what an everyday fielder registers when he comes into pitch in a blowout game in the ninth inning. We’ve all seen it. The score is 20-2 in the ninth inning and the manager doesn’t want to use an arm so he asks one of his bench players to throw the ninth inning. That bench player will get a 3% swing and miss rate too. At Triple-A Las Vegas, Pill walked 14 batters and struck out 23 in 46 innings so he wasn’t striking ‘em out in the minors either. This is a Double-A pitcher making his second career start after the planets were aligned perfectly for him in his first. 

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Our Pick

Pittsburgh +109 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110