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Posted at 8:45 AM EST. 

7:15 PM EST. Lance McCullers’ 2.48 ERA is completely legit while Andrew Cashner’s 2.92 ERA is a complete mirage. McCullers has an impressive BB/K split of 19/73 in 65 innings to go along with the best groundball rate in the majors at 61%. Nothing more needs to be said other than he’s pitching for the hottest team in baseball and while spotting 1½-runs and a little juice may not seem like a bargain, it actually is because this is a pitching mismatch of mammoth proportions at a severe hitter's park. 

We faded Cashner last time out in Toronto and he somehow Houdini-ed is way to seven full innings of five hit, one run ball. Of the 26 batters that Cashner faced in Toronto, he struck out two. In 52 innings, Cashner has walked 27 and struck out 23. That does not add up to an ERA under 3.00. His 86% strand rate over his last seven starts is the highest among starters over that span. This is a pitcher with weak skills that has been living off of strand percentage and hit percentage luck. He’ll now face one of the fiercest offenses in the game that work pitchers to the bone because of their collective great plate discipline. The Astronauts have struck out the second fewest times in MLB and take the 10th most walks. Cashner’s charmed season is about to blow up and if it doesn’t blow up here, we’ll be fading Cashner again. 

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