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Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

6:10 PM EST. The Indians have scored 15 runs the past two games while the A’s have lost 18 of 25 games on the road, thus setting up this inflated price.

Trevor Bauer has been a perpetual tease and chronic flop throughout most of his MLB career. Such has been the case so far in 2017 (6.30 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 50 IP). Some bad luck has victimized Bauer this year, as his high 35% hit rate, low 57% strand rate, and high 21% hr/f will attest to so there's some positive regression coming. Here’s where it gets interesting. Bauer has 59 K’s in 50 innings, which is elite and the books are putting too much emphasis on that. We’re seeing that his high strikeout rate does not have merit because his swing and miss rate is average at best (9%) and his first-pitch strike rate of 53% is awful. Trevor Bauer on his best day cannot be priced in this range over Sonny Gray.

After an electric 2015, in which he finished third in Cy Young voting, the future looked bright for Sonny Gray but 2016 ended with dimmed lights with injuries and poor performance all year. After a lat strain to start 2017 and struggling in his first two starts, Gray’s looked better recently. Much better. Gray struggled with walks in 2016, but that’s not been the case this year. His first-pitch strike of 63% and rising confirms he’s doing a fine job getting ahead of hitters. He’s also generating more swinging strikes. Gray is elite at inducing grounders (59%) too. He’s struck out 28 batters in his last 30 frames and his groundball rate over that span was 64%. Sonny Gray is quietly returning to the from that made him a Cy Young finalist in 2015 so the window to buy low on him is closing fast. Time will tell if this is the best bet on the board today but it has to be considered one of the best value plays of the season so far.

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