Chicago @ SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO +127 over Chicago

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +127 Bet365 +125 SportsInteraction +120 5DIMES +120

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

10:10 PM EST. We previewed Dinelson Lamet in our MLB call-ups section last week and will run that piece again here now:

The Padres will call up the 24-year-old from Triple-A and he’ll make his major league debut with a start today (Thursday, May 25). He could make multiple starts if all goes well initially. Lamet was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2014 and has flown under the radar ever since despite posting impressive numbers at each level of the minors. Not only is he tough to make hard contact against, but he misses bats with two plus offerings in his 92-96 mph fastball and high-80s slider. Lamet has a tall, strong frame and can pitch downhill with his arm slot. His fastball also features late, tailing action which gives him high groundball tendencies. While he just started to use a change-up in 2016, it has shown promise and should become another decent pitch in his arsenal. Lamet has been effective against hitters from both sides, but he needs to seriously upgrade his command in order to exceed his lofty expectations. If he can get ahead in the count and rely on his slider, he could become a high strikeout pitcher in the majors. He is certainly worth watching and if the Mets had anyone but deGrom pitching today, we’d probably grab Lamet at this price. Lamet has a career 2.99 ERA, 3.8 BB’s/9 and 10.1 K’s in the minors.

STATS: El Paso (AAA) – 8 GS, 3-2 3.23 ERA, 39 IP, 4.6 BB’s/9, 11.5 K’s/9, 2 HR, .222 oppBA

Lamet was rock solid in that debut by going five full innings against the Mets in New York and allowing just three hits and one run while striking out eight batters. He was throwing 96 MPH heat in his debut with a 13% swing and miss rate and is certainly worth another wager here. We suggested last week that we would bet him had he not been opposing Jacob deGrom but as it turns out, deGrom was a late scratch and San Diego ended up winning that day.

Eddie Butler pitches for the Cubs. That makes him overvalued before a single pitch is even thrown. While pitching for the Cubbies adds value to every starter, this one is a big risk because he’s constantly behind in the count and walks more batters than he strikes out. Butler comes in with a 1.93 ERA after three starts but that’s a tiny sample size for a starter with a career 6.13 ERA previously. Butler’s 86% strand rate and 23% hit rate are both luck driven numbers that numbers that are unsustainable. This is a pitcher with 10 walks and nine K’s in 14 innings to go along with a below average 8% swing and miss rate. That Butler's ERA is elite is a nifty sleight-of-hand in light of his 1.82 xWHIP and wretched BB/K ratio. A correction to the bad in Butler’s ERA is forthcoming but more importantly, you are going to pay prices to back any starter on the Cubs and this one is the least worthy of them all.

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Our Pick

SAN DIEGO +127 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.54)

Boston +121 over Cleveland
Chicago +113 over Houston
Seattle -1½ +137 over Texas