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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

2:10 PM EST. You are going to pay through the roof today to back Boston’s David Price and if he and the Red Sox win, a distinct possibility indeed, good for them. Frankly, the line here is preposterous and therefore the South Side must be played.

Price obviously is scheduled to be activated from the disabled list for this matinee start and it’ll be his first start of the year after rehabbing his pitching elbow. If you recall, Price had a rocky start in his Boston debut last year (6.75/5.52 ERA/xERA split in first seven games) and part of it was due to a nasty hit%/strand% and hr/f. Aside from that, his recent, rising xERA trend keeps him from being the cream of any crop anymore. Massive innings pitch history may also catch up. Price could very well get it all together and get back to being the reliable and consistently strong starter that he’s always been but it’s not going to happen overnight. Price’s two rehab starts were very similar in that they each featured four strikeouts, one walk and three earned runs but the first start only lasted two innings while the second went 3.2 innings. He also gave up 12 hits in those two starts, which further reveals the big risk in backing him. Price is not likely to go deep into this start so Boston’s pen will likely be in there by the third or fourth inning, if Price lasts that long.

Another reason Boston is heavily favored here is because the South Side is forced to lean on David Holmberg for a spot start or two after Dylan Covey landed on the DL. Holmberg has appeared in eight games this year, all in relief, covering 10 innings and comes in with a 0.87 ERA. However, in his previous 12 career MLB starts with Cincinnati and Arizona, his ERA/xERA split was 6.62/6.13. Holmberg is a career minor-leaguer with 1000 minor league innings under his belt since 2009 but he’s just 25-years-old. He’s mostly been in a starter in the minors with 168 of his 182 appearances being starts so this is a kid that has paid his dues. Holmberg has a good sinking fastball that reaches the low 90s, along with an average slider and a low-80s changeup that is plus. The 6'3", 245-pounder can use his height to pound low in the zone and force ground balls, but when he loses command, he can be roughed up as he was the past two years in Cinci. There’s a good chance he’ll be roughed up again but perhaps he’s finally found his footing after being a second round pick way back in 2009. Holmberg comes at hitters with his three-pitch arsenal and perhaps his small sample success this year with provide him with the confidence to be aggressive. One or both of these starters could and likely will get torched today but David Price is a big favorite that is just as likely to get whacked as David Holmberg is. That’s value.

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