BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +125 Bet365 -1½ +110 SportsInteraction -1½ +110 5DIMES -1½ +120

Posted at 10:45 AM EST. 

1:05 PM EST. Guess who’s feeling pretty good these days? After an injury filled first two months, the Blue Jays managed to hold the fort until they got some key bodies back. Sitting just 6½-games out of first and just three games under .500, Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki and Ricky Martin are all back in the lineup and Devon Travis is swinging one of the hottest sticks in baseball. This Toronto lineup is scary again and Andrew Cashner is very likely going to pay the price.

With a strong 3.18 ERA in his first eight starts of 2017 and pitching at least half his games in a hitter’s park, there are going to be some folks jumping on Cashner’s bandwagon today but we’re urging you to not be one of them. Cashner’s xERA points to poor skills and it can be broken day piece by piece. First, he’s walked more batters (25) than he’s struck out (21) over 45 innings. The Jays are one of the best teams’ in baseball in working the count. Cashner’s BB/K ratio is wretched. Cashner’s swing and miss rate is 5% and his first-pitch strike rate is 52%. To make matters worse, his velocity (92 mph) doesn’t reach his 2012-15 levels when he was throwing 94-97 mph. His hit % and strand % are saving him from being torched every single game. This is a pitcher with no redeeming skills and a lot of flat pitches in the zone. For Andrew Cashner, this will likely get ugly fast.

Joe Biagini was thrust into important innings late last year and handled it intrepidly. Those late control gains stuck this year, which should come as no surprise given his top-tier first-pitch strike rate of 65% and his concurrent surge in swing and miss stuff also supports an increase in strikeouts. Joe Biagini’s has a BB/K split of 8/30 in 36 innings and he also owns an elite 60% groundball. He’s been thrust into the rotation now because of injuries and will likely be stretched out further today in this, his fifth start of the year. With that groundball tilt, excellent control, 11% swing and miss rate and lack of big LH/RH splits, he's got the makings of good starter but this is more a fade on Cashner because the Jays are in line to torch him big time.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.