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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

10:05 PM EST. Mike Foltynewicz comes in with a 3.86 ERA after nine starts with five pure quality starts. He has a BB/K split of 14/37 in 47 innings with a swing and miss rate of 10%. His skills have been trending the right way for three years now. Some guys take longer to bloom than others and now Foltynewicz is on the verge of a breakout. He throws 96 MPH heat, he misses bats and he comes into this start with a 3.79 xERA, which is even better than it looks because as it turns out, Atlanta’s new home, Sun Trust Park is a hitter’s paradise. We’re just giving the skinny on Foltynewicz for information purposes. In reality, we couldn’t care less which pitcher the Braves send out there today because this bet is a fade against Ty Blach.

For years, experts talked about won/loss records until it was proven that it meant nothing. They then turned to ERA to get a real sense of a pitcher’s worth but that, too, doesn’t tell the story. Ty Blach is living proof that ERA’s are misleading and it’s something we’ll continue to try and exploit. That sets up this fade.

Ty Blach is 1-1 at home with a 1.59 ERA after 28.1 innings of which was made up of three relief appearances and four starts. In his last three starts in which Blach went seven full innings in each, he has an ERA of 2.57. On paper, it’s pretty but under the hood it doesn’t get much uglier so things are going to blow up on this stiff big time. Blach has decent control and a strong groundball rate of 50% but that’s not enough. However, he also has the worst K-rate in MLB among qualified starters with 14 K’s in 42 innings. His early MLB K-rate and 4% swing and miss rate are highly discouraging and his minor league numbers don't offer much hope, either. Even in his 11.2 innings of relief work in the majors, his K-rate has only been 2.3 per nine. Blach is at the mercy of batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Of the 30 starters today, 20 of them have a BABIP between .265 and .330. Ty Blach’s BABIP is a ridiculous and unsustainable .152. He’s been helped out by extreme luck and his pitcher-friendly park. What his surface stats do not reveal is that on the road, this hittable pitcher has an ERA of 9.45 after giving up 21 hits and 16 earned runs in 13.1 innings of work. The Braves superior pen works in our favor too.

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