BEST LINES: Pinnacle  -1½ +147 Bet365  -1½ +145 SportsInteraction -1½ +135 5DIMES  -1½ +130

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

1:05 PM EST. Lots of moving parts here. First, the Rockies are red-hot, they’re annihilating the Phillies and they’re going to come to the park today almost knowing that they’re going to win again. By contrast, the Phillies are seeing BB gun pellets at the plate and their mindset today is very likely that they’re going to lose again. The Phillies have lost three straight to the Rocks, four in a row overall and eight of their last nine games. In the first three games of this series, the Phillies have scored five runs and yesterday they were down 7-0 early and mustered a mere three hits the entire game.

Vincent Velasquez might be the Phillies best pitcher but right now, the Phillies are playing and hitting too poorly to get behind any of their starters. Velasquez has 45 K’s in 44 innings but he’s walked 20 and his control is not showing any signs of improvement. His 5.98 ERA is definitely in line for improvement but again, we have to wait for another day to get behind this starter, as this wager is all about riding the hot hand of the Rockies and fading the ice-cold Phillies.

Then there’s Tyler Anderson and 6.00 ERA, which is also in line for improvement because Anderson’s skills have been outstanding. Anderson’s rough stats have been driven up by a 33% hit rate, 62% strand rate, and 24% hr/f. Both his aggregate skills and command sub-indicators (13% swing and miss rate, 66% first-pitch strike rate) have been very good. He has a BB/K split of 16/49 in 48 innings to go along with an increasing groundball rate that has gone from 41% to 45% and was at 71% in his last start. Tyler Anderson’s xERA of 3.40 makes him a premium buy low target that we’re going to move in on here.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.