Arizona @ MILWAUKEE
Arizona -108 over MILWAUKEE

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -108 Bet365 -115 SportsInteraction -110 5DIMES -110

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

8:10 PM EST. Zach Davies started the season with an 0-3 record and 8.79 ERA but he has gone 5-0 with a 3.94 ERA in six starts since so his stock is high. That makes us instant sellers because Zach Davies has not been sharp at all. Instead, he’s been lucky. Over his past six starts, opponents are batting .291 against him with 11 walks and 26 strikeouts. His 1.66 WHIP on the year is atrocious. Davies’ marginal swing and miss rate (8%) likely caps his K rate. This is a starter with few dominant starts in his career. As that dominant start/disaster start split and his xERA shows, the "low ceiling, high floor" label does not fit here. Zach Davies has one “pure” quality start in nine tries this season.

Robbie Ray flashed some electric stuff in 2016 but while the strikeouts were there, the results (4.90 ERA) didn't match up with the skills (3.70 xERA) and he’s still being undervalued this year. Ray is missing even more bats this season, recording double digit swinging strikes in all but one of his starts. Ray has 65 K’s in 53 frames this year and his swing and miss stuff is legit. Ray possesses tantalizing stuff that leads to a lot of strikeouts. However, there is risk because he often struggles to throw strikes, a problem that has exacerbated in 2017. Furthermore, when batters make contact against Ray, they often do some damage, as he was ranked among the league leaders in hard contact allowed last year and is up near the top of the list again. That said, the Crew are slowing down in terms of their hitting and they matchup poorly against a strikeout pitcher like Ray. Collectively, the Crew have struck out more times than any team in baseball besides Tampa Bay so Ray should be mowing em down all night long.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.



Our Pick

Arizona -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110