Chicago @ ARIZONA
ARIZONA -1½ +176 over Chicago

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +176 Bet365 -1½ +170 SportsInteraction -1½ +160  5DIMES -1½ +170

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

3:40 PM EST. Seriously? The South Side evenly priced in the desert here is incorrect but this market prefers the familiar and reliable Jose Quintana to the rather unknown Randall Delgado. That works in our favor big time.

With off-season trades, Jose Quintana became Chicago’s No. 1 starter in the off-season and he’s answered the bell with six quality starts in nine tries but quality starts are a loosely used term. Quintana comes in with a 3.92/4.37 ERA/xERA split. Quintana isn’t exactly struggling but he’s not flourishing either and it can’t be attributed to poor fortune, since his hit % and strand % rates hover around average. His xERA shows a bit of a slide in skills. His big problem has been walks with 24 already in 57 frames. He’s also giving up a few more fly balls, which is not a desired trait in Guaranteed Rate Field or at this park. The market likes his reliability and nice looking surface stats but he’s no ace and he’s also hittable. Again, playing for the South Side, Jose Quintana CANNOT be evenly priced against Arizona at Chase Field.

Enter Randall Delgado, a pitcher that has been around the majors and minors since 2011 and that has not found his footing just yet. In 250 MLB appearances since 2011, Delgado has started 48 games and has pitched to a career 4.14 ERA. He’s had some outstanding stretches too and at the age of 27, he may now be ready to thrive. Delgado can pile up tons of strikeouts. He has two of the most dominant pitches in the game (29% swing and miss rate on his changeup and a 25% swing and miss rate on his slider). We’re not just talking about this year either. Delgado has been throwing filthy stuff for quite some time and now he’s throwing for strikes. In 27 innings this season, Delgado has a BB/K split of 5/24. He is missing bats at an elite clip (14%) and attacking hitters early in counts (65% first-pitch strike rate). This “kid” has paid his dues and with his elite raw stuff, he should not be tucked away any longer. What great value here.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.



Our Pick

ARIZONA -1½ +176 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.52)

No Run in First Inning -105