BEST LINES: Pinnacle +138 Bet365 +135 SportsInteraction +140 5DIMES +135

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

10:05 PM EST. As a -243 favorite last night with Clayton Kershaw on the hill, the Dodgers squeezed out a 13-inning, 2-1 victory. That shows how risky big favorites are and this one is especially risky. Rich Hill sits 2nd to only Kershaw in ERA and WHIP since 2015 (min. 130 IP), but he's 164th of 173 qualified pitchers in innings pitched during that time. Hill’s skills aren't in question, even at 37 years old, but he’s always a risk to leave the game because of a recurring blister issue or some other injury. That uncertainty is not built into the cost here, which adds to the Cardinals appeal. Aside from that, Hill’s swing and miss rate is down to 8%. His xERA is 3.87 and even if the Cardinals can squeeze out a couple of runs, we have a shot. Incidentally, the possibility that they score three, four or more is also very real.

Mike Leake had a very disappointing first year in St. Louis on the surface, including a 6.03 ERA in his final 11 games started. However, a look deeper and we see a second half surge in strikeouts and swing and miss rate. Leake’s career best control from last year has carried over into this year, as Leake has walked just 10 batters in 53 frames. His typically high groundball rate has never been better than this year’s elite 54% rate. Five straight seasons with 30-plus starts shows reliability and while his 2.03 ERA this year isn low and in line for regression, his skills and xERA of 3.16 reveals that it’s all legit. This dude can pitch and he’s perhaps the most undervalued starter on the board today. Huge overlay against a seriously banged up Dodgers squad.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.