Colorado @ PHILADELPHIA
Colorado -1½ +128 over PHILADELPHIA

BEST LINES: Pinnacle  -1½ +128 Bet365  -1½ +125 SportsInteraction -1½ +125 5DIMES  -1½ +120

Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

7:05 PM EST. The Phillies dropped the opener of this series last night, 8-1 and have now lost seven of their past eight games. The Phillies OPS of .268 over its last 10 games is by far the worst in MLB and there are no signs of them breaking out of it anytime soon. Philadelphia has scored one run in its last two games and now has to play one of the hottest teams in the majors again.

Zack Eflin is 0-1 after six starts with an ERA/xERA split of 4.25/4.62 after 36 innings. Last year, Eflin threw 63 innings as a starter and went 3-5 with an ERA/xERA split of 5.54/5.42 so there are improvements. However, Eflin doesn't get enough groundballs or miss enough bats (7% swing and miss rate, 8% in minor league career). Eflin was also diagnosed in August with a stress fracture in right foot and patellar tendinopathy in both knees so he missed the last 10 weeks of the season last year. Eflin’s greatest asset is his control (BB/K split of 6/18) but that’s not such a great thing for a starter that doesn’t strike out many batters. When a strong hitting team knows a pitcher is going to be around the plate, they go up there ready to swing. After three starts this year, Eflin had a 1.89 ERA but three starts later and his ERA is 4.25. That gives one an idea of what happens when MLB batters learn a pitcher’s tendencies. Eflin's ability to limit the walks is impressive, particularly with such little experience but the complete lack of dominance is an indicator he's not going to have a great deal of success in the short-term. Until he shows he can generate more whiffs, Eflin is a risky investment and is always at the mercy of batting average against on batted balls in play.

German Marquez is only five starts into his second season. Last year he appeared in six games with three of those coming as a starter. Signed by the Rays in 2011 out of Venezuela, Marquez was the prime player the Rockies received after the 2015 season when they traded Corey Dickerson to Tampa Bay. Marquez repaid the Rockies' confidence with a breakout 2016. He made the jump from Double-A Hartford to Triple-A Albuquerque to the big leagues in 2016, beating the Cardinals with five quality innings to win his first start. Marquez has plus velocity and it comes effortlessly at a consistent 94-96 mph and touches 98. The ball comes out of his hand with velocity and never fades. Marquez's solid three-pitch assortment includes a curveball that flashes plus and has good spin. His 2016 focus was to tighten it up, which he did. His changeup still needs work but it has good velocity differential from his fastball. He has shown an ability to pitch inside and use his changeup even when behind in the count. Most impressively, he reduced his walk rate in 2016 by more than a half walk per nine innings. This year, Marquez has 24 K’s in 29 innings. His consistently strong groundball rate has been his best skill thus far in the majors and that's a good tool for a Rockies pitcher to have in his toolbox. While Marquez is likely to have a few blowups, he’s pitching aggressively and with a lot of confidence right now and the Rocks are also playing with a ton of confidence.

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Our Pick

Colorado -1½ +128 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.56)