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Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. The Pirates are without question one of the most frustrating teams to get behind because they fail to execute the simplest and most basic strategies of the game. They always seem to leave a bunch of runs on the table. That said, the Pirates have a significant pitching matchup advantage here but the surface stats do not reveal that so allow us to.

R.A. Dickey needs no introductions. Everybody who follows baseball knows exactly who he is and what he is. There is no analyzing a knuckleballer. That pitch is either dancing or it’s not but for R.A. Dickey, things are not looking up. Age is clearly taking a toll on Dickey, who struggled to a 4.46/4.75 ERA/xERA and 1.37 WHIP in 170 innings for the Blue Jays last year, his worst MLB season since 2009. He was more HR-prone than ever. Dickey's ability to eat innings produced 10 wins and 126 Ks, but the trade-offs weren't worth it. His 3-3 record this year with a 4.13 ERA may seem like his descent has slowed and being back in the NL has helped that but nothing could be further from the truth. Among the warning signs is a control decline in which Dickey has a BB/K split of 21/26 in 48 frames. His xERA of 6.01 and swing and miss rate of 6% are both horrible. Issues with HR’s (10 jacks allowed in 48 IP) are another troublesome sign among many others. Throw in a crumbling strikeout rate too. R.A Dickey is 42-years-old. Even knuckleballers reach the end of the line and this one cannot be evenly priced or favored against any starter on the Pirates.

We are absolutely thrilled that after eight starts, Tyler Glasnow brings a 7.34 ERA into this start because we get the Pirates at a greatly reduced price because of it. If he was as bad as that ERA suggests, he would be back in the minors but the Pirates and pitching coach, Ray Searage, know they have something good here. The 23-year-old Glasnow is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. His long-term potential is outstanding. As we've seen with plenty of other top prospects, it can take time and many ups and downs to find one's footing in the majors but this kid is working with the best pitching coach in the game and that matters. The problem here is control. Glasnow has walked 24 batters in 37 innings and is too often behind in the count. However, he also has 37 K’s which translates to 9.7 K’s/9. In his last start, Glasnow’s 73% first-pitch strike rate led to five innings of three-hit ball against the Nationals. That’s a start. Two starts ago, Glasnow faced the Brewers and walked just two batters in six innings so things are trending in the right direction for him. His numbers across the board look horrible on paper because he’s had some terrible outings due to issuing too many free passes. That’s where we step in and analyze the under-the-hood numbers to find some hidden gems. Tyler Glasnow is a risk to be sure. He could walk five batters in two innings and not see the third inning. However, he also has filthy stuff that could lead to a wickedly strong start at any time and against R.A. Dickey, we’re willing to take that risk.

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