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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

1:10 PM EST. This is the first game of a double-header so listed pitchers must go. The Twins are a significant favorite here because the Royals are starting a rookie but Phil Hughes is one of these starters that we often discuss that must be faded when favored regardless of the opposition. We faded Hughes in his last start against Colorado and cashed that ticket. We’ll run that same analysis here:

That Phil Hughes is even in the major leagues is a true testament to the lack of quality starters. That this stiff is favored, evenly priced or a small underdog is even more incredible. Forget Bartolo Colon, Jered Weaver, Mike Bolsinger, Bronson Arroyo or anyone else that doesn’t belong and put Hughes at the top of our list of pitchers that are out of place in this league. In April and early May with cool weather, these guys can sneak by but now that the weather is warming up, watch Phil Hughes blow up constantly.

Last season, shoulder surgery mercifully ended Hughes’ season in June. HR suppression drove his 2014 numbers but they're back in full force since. His fading fastball velocity has pushed him to use the cutter more, which yields the same brutal swing and miss rate and just as hard contact. The only thing Hughes can do is throw strikes but so can a pitching machine. Hughes has a BB/K split of 9/26 in 43 frames. His 5% swing and miss rate means he is not even Triple-A or Double-A worthy. His groundball/fly-ball split of 33%/44% is also troublesome and so is his 1.47 WHIP and 87 MPH fastball. Throw in a 6.22 xERA and Phil Hughes is not even a shiny object at the dollar store anymore. His career is finished so cash in before he cashes out.

Jake Junis will make his major league starting debut here. Ranked the No. 10 Royals prospect in their organizational report, the 24-year-old projects as a starter and has spent the vast majority of his career in the starting rotation. He has cruised through the minors and really emerged in 2016 after he finished 3rd in the Double-A Texas League in ERA. Though he was hit hard in his limited stint in Triple-A in 2016, he has good stuff and control. He stands 6’2”, yet throws with a solid angle to the plate and he repeats his slot and simple delivery consistently. Junis has a keen feel for changing speeds and can add movement to his 90-95 mph. Left-handed hitters have given him fits over the years and he has given up his fair share of long balls but a bright spot for him is he has increased his velocity the last few years while polishing his hard curveball that misses bats. Junis has gotten his feet wet with two innings of relief and posted a 13% swing and miss rate in that small sample size. While Junis brings risk and could get whacked today for sure, he’s not the one spotting a price. Phil Hughes very simply cannot be favored in this range over anyone.  

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