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Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

1:10 PM EST. One could almost chose either side here because there figures to be a lot of crooked numbers put up by both sides and one of them is likely going to win by two or more. We’re not going to guess which one but this one has the same feel as yesterday’s 12-8 Cincinnati win in which the Rocks were a small favorite with what appeared to be a superior pitcher based on surface stats and that’s precisely the same situation here.

After eight starts, Kyle Freeland is 4-2 with a tremendous 3.13 ERA. He’s pitched at home four times and on the road four times and on the road he’s 4-2 with an ERA of 2.42. Those are outstanding numbers for Freeland after eight starts just like Antonio Senzatela had going into yesterday but like Senzatela, Freeland’s surface stats are an illusion too. Freeland’s great success has had more to do with a high strand % and low hr/f than skill. His xERA of 5.28 shows that he's due for a sizable ERA correction. His command has been lousy (and declining as he's moved up the ladder). His K-rate (29 K’s in 46 innings), swing and miss rate (7%) and first-pitch strike rate (52%) do not offer any hope for improvement. Any pitcher with control problems who puts a lot of balls in play is not a good match for Coors Field or Great American Ball Park. Our scouting report of Freeland stated that his change-up lags behind his fastball and slider in quality, adding that "the 23-year-old’s lack of a dependable third pitch complicates his true outcome." Freeland's poor skills thus far seem to back up that assessment. ERA regression is in the cards for Freeland and so is a trip back to the minors. He’s simply not good enough.

The other pitcher here is Bronson Arroyo, who is the Jered Weaver of the NL. Weaver’s ERA/xERA split is 7.44/6.12 while Arroyo’s is 6.31/6.02. Arroyo has a BB/K split of 13/26 in 41 frames while Weaver’s split is 12/23 in 42 innings. Weaver’s average fastball is 83.6 MPH while Arroyo’s is 84.2. They have identical groundball rates of 34%. Weaver’s hr/f rate is 29% while Arroyo’s is lower but still high at 17%. The only difference is that Weaver pitches at a pitcher’s park in San Diego while Arroyo pitches at one of the friendliest hitter’s parks in the game. Arroyo has a job because Homer Bailey, Brandon Finnegan and Anthony DeSclafani remain out on the 60-day disabled list. When they get back, Arroyo will be on the “for the remainder of his life” DL.

Great American Ball Park is cozy, with 328 and 325-foot corners and 370-foot alleys and these dimensions combine with the shortage of foul territory to provide a hitter's haven on most days unless the wind is blowing strongly in. More often, though, a breeze from downtown blows through a gap behind home plate, providing a gentle but convenient wind tunnel that leads out to centerfield and into the Ohio River. The Air Density Index reading today is a favorable 62.08, which is in the same range as the past two days that provided scores of 12-6 and 12-8 respectively. This one also has the makings of one team scoring 12 and thus, it should once again be a game with a slew of crooked half innings by the time the starters are gone.

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