BEST LINES: Pinnacle +115 Bet365 +115 SportsInteraction +130 5DIMES +115

Posted at 9:50 AM EST. 

12:35 PM EST.  Tanner Roark has only been pitching at this level for three years. He made 31 and 33 starts in 2014 and 2016 respectively and in between, in 2015, he spent most of the year in the bullpen. Last year was the second time of Roark outmaneuvering his pedestrian peripherals to put up good numbers. His skills are fringe-average, he's now 30, and his control is regressing. Reliability grades notwithstanding, Roark is not a first or second tier starter. He’s a back of the rotation guy that has spent the better part of the past decade in the minors. Roark has put together two extremely valuable seasons, combining an excellent ERA with a lot of innings on both occasions. However, both his xERA and his swing and miss rate history point to a mediocre skill-set and certainly not one that supports his ERA. Dude pitches for a really good team so that gives him more value but he was relegated to the pen twice in 2015 where he remained and his dominant start/disaster start split between 2015 and this year is 30%/30% with a lot of average outings thrown in. Line here smells a little fishy too (opened at -115) with Tyler Glasnow and the sinking Pirate ship taking back a rather small price. 

Glasnow comes in with a 7.98 ERA after seven starts and will now face one the market’s most feared offenses. Indeed, the market perception here is likely going to be that the Nats are a steal at this price facing a pitcher with one of the worst ERA’s in the game. Glasnow is coming off a game in which he lasted 2.1 innings after surrendering seven runs on seven hits with two of those knocks leaving the yard. At home, Glasnow is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA. Hell, it is near impossible to make a case for the Pirates here. The small price is almost daring bettors to play the chalk so allow us to bring you up to speed on Tyler Glasnow.

Glasnow has filthy stuff but the problem is that he can’t throw strikes. In-season, seemed at times like Pittsburgh was being super-cautious in not promoting this top starting pitching prospect last year, as they saw this emerging control issue. He walked 13 batters in 23 innings last year and has walked 21 in 29 innings this year. More than half of those walks have come around to score. Here’s the thing though: the 23-year-old Glasnow is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. His long-term potential is outstanding because when he gets ahead in the count, he’ll make batters look foolish up there. He posted an elite 82/19 K/BB in 63 IP at Double-A in 2015. In 96 innings at Triple-A Indianapolis in 2016, he struck out 117 batters and posted a 1.17 ERA. He has 32 K’s in 29 innings this year with a 14% swing and miss rate. Glasnow is working with the best pitching coach in the game and while there are still growing pains, his stock is way too low right now to ignore. His swing and miss rate and groundball % tilt are in place and now he just needs more strikes. That's the last piece of this puzzle, which makes Glasnow a decent gamble when taking back a tag at home or anywhere else for that matter. 

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