Boston @ OAKLAND
Boston +100 over OAKLAND

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +100 Bet365 -110 SportsInteraction -110 5DIMES -105

Posted at 9:50 AM EST. 

10:05 PM EST. Frankly, we couldn’t care who is pitching here. When we can take the Red Sox and spot under -275 against Oakland, it’s a bet we’re going to make more often than not. Ok, that’s exaggerating but you get the point. This game is evenly priced because Sonny Gray is a recognizable name with pedigree while the Red Sox will send out a rookie that nobody has heard of and that there is not a lot of information on. We’ll get to Hector Velazquez in a sec but first we’ll look at Oakland’s overvalued starter. 

Gray has made just three starts this year and in 17 innings, he has a mere nine K’s with an 8% swing and miss rate. He’s keeping the ball on the ground and he’s likely to get better as the season wears on because he still possesses the skills that netted him a 3.08 ERA or lower in each of his first three seasons. Gray’s xERA's aren't quite as kind (career 3.76), but even that ERA is solid. However, Gray pitches for the A’s so that makes his value less. The bullpen behind him is atrocious, which also lowers the value on both Oakland and all its starters. Gray is slowly recovering from a series of injuries (neck, shoulder, oblique) but he's missed a ton of time over the past 20 months and he's not back to full strength yet. 

A year ago, Hector Velazquez was pitching for Acereros de Monclova, a team based in Mexico’s most prolific steel-producing city, unknown to nearly all baseball fans in the United States. Velazquez was on loan from Piratas de Campeche, the team for which he’d pitched his first six seasons and even winning Rookie of the Year honors in Liga Mexicana de Béisbol in 2010.

Velazquez, a right-hander, made 22 starts for a Monclova team that finished second in its division. He struck out more than seven batters for every one he walked, which was easily the best ratio of any pitcher in the league who made at least 10 starts. Last year was his breakout year in which Velazquez posted 120 strikeouts, 16 walks and a 2.47 ERA in 131 innings for Monclova. Pitching for Monclova is equivalent to pitching at the Triple A level. In five starts for Pawtucket prior to this call-up, Velazquez allowed just 18 hits in 29 frames while whiffing 20 and walking five. Velazquez generates lots of groundballs but he also can get hitters to swing and miss at his lively pitch mix. He has a good, deceptive change-up that can be potent against left-handed hitters. His ability to pair overpowering raw stuff and an extreme groundball tilt gives him an intriguing foundation for which to work with and it’s not like he’s facing the Orioles in Baltimore here. He’s facing a team that makes almost everyone they face look like Sandy Koufax. Pencil us in here on the Red Sox and this unknown starter that won’t be unknown for long.  

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.



Our Pick

Boston +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110